Can You Match Cubs to their Average Batted Ball Velocities?
We’ve long been obsessed with pitch speed, but it’s only lately that batted-ball velocity has begun to seep into the collective consciousness of baseball fans. I mean, we’ve always marveled at the speed of various frozen ropes, but not to the extent that we concerned ourselves with the actual speed of the hits.
But now you’re seeing exit velocities listed on MLB Advanced Media’s Statcast and stat-heads like Daren Wilman are compiling the data on websites like Baseball Savant and more. If you’re questioning the value of such measurements, consider that a harder-hit ball is more likely to yield a positive result for the batter.
I began to think about this recently when watching the Cubs absolutely hammer Shaun Marcum and the Indians on Wednesday night; every ball they hit was a rocket, even the fouls and the one that ended up in their opponent’s mitts. I’ll likely take more time to research this topic further at a later date, but for now I wanted to have a little fun with it.
First, a look at the man who sits atop the average batted-ball velocity chart: Giancarlo Stanton. These numbers are absolutely freakish. Take, for instance, his max exit speed of 120 mph, a mark he’s reached twice. The rest of the players in the majors have achieved such a speed exactly zero times so far in 2015. The average ball struck by Stanton’s bat travels 336.88 feet. Yeah.
| Name | Max Exit Vel. – MPH | Min – MPH | Avg – MPH | Avg – FB/LD MPH | Avg – GB MPH | Max Distance – Ft. | Avg – Ft. | Avg HR – Ft. |
| Giancarlo Stanton | 120 | 56 | 97.82 | 101.95 | 92.1 | 478 | 336.88 | 420.1 |
That had absolutely nothing to do with the Cubs, but I thought it was worth sharing. Now, on to the North Siders. Below, you’ll find a list of max, min, and average exit velo for some Cubs hitters with the names removed. See if you can guess who they are.
| Max Exit Vel. – MPH | Min – MPH | Avg – MPH |
| 116 | 37 | 93.48 |
| 105 | 56 | 91.18 |
| 105 | 77 | 89.86 |
| 107 | 50 | 89.76 |
| 108 | 39 | 89.35 |
| 110 | 45 | 89.33 |
| 112 | 33 | 88.92 |
Okay, that was probably a little unfair, so let me help you out a little. In no particular order, those stats belong to Miguel Montero, Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler, Jon Lester, David Ross, and Chris Coghlan. Now do you think you can get them? If you’d like to check your work, the correct order is listed at the bottom.
And here’s a look at the full stats for a larger group of Cubs hitters, again with the player in question above removed (but the home run stats should give you some clues). As you can see, the data isn’t real-time, as Kyle Schwarber’s home run isn’t yet listed. Admittedly, I included him despite the small sample size when I had left others out for the same reason.
At first blush, Junior Lake’s average HR distance looks pretty impressive. But then you realize that’s an average of a single home run; shhhh, don’t tell anyone. What about Starlin Castro though? That 417.5 ft average has come on 5 homers. If only he could square the ball up a bit more.
| Name | Max Exit Vel. – MPH | Min – MPH | Avg – MPH | Avg – FB/LD MPH | Avg – GB MPH | Max Distance – Ft. | Avg – Ft. | Avg HR – Ft. |
| 116 | 37 | 93.48 | 95.79 | 90.31 | 427 | 306.48 | 397.25 | |
| 105 | 56 | 91.18 | 93.91 | 86.59 | 432 | 313.39 | 397.13 | |
| 105 | 77 | 89.86 | 96.5 | 87.2 | 372 | 356 | 0 | |
| 107 | 50 | 89.76 | 92.48 | 87.23 | 423 | 303.98 | 401.57 | |
| 108 | 39 | 89.35 | 94.29 | 89.6 | 386 | 307.33 | 0 | |
| 110 | 45 | 89.33 | 93.29 | 85.97 | 477 | 304.72 | 412 | |
| 112 | 33 | 88.92 | 95.13 | 83.15 | 425 | 305.77 | 407.64 | |
| Kyle Schwarber | 97 | 75 | 87.67 | 0 | 90.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Denorfia | 110 | 42 | 87.32 | 94.45 | 87 | 361 | 279.5 | 0 |
| Starlin Castro | 110 | 38 | 87.31 | 91 | 86.13 | 427 | 299.16 | 417.5 |
| Addison Russell | 107 | 45 | 86.96 | 90.51 | 82.97 | 396 | 299.84 | 396 |
| Dexter Fowler | 110 | 37 | 86.59 | 88.7 | 84 | 411 | 289.42 | 387.17 |
| Junior Lake | 108 | 35 | 84.35 | 93.31 | 82.45 | 423 | 305.18 | 423 |
So the next time you find yourself following the Cubs on your phone or computer, take a look at the batted ball stats. Maybe I’m just a nerd, but I think it’s fun to quantify those hits we see that make us say “whoa.”
Stats via BaseballSavant.com
Answers: Soler, Montero, Lester, Coghlan, Ross, Bryant, Rizzo