Quantifying Hope: Cubs at 95% Playoff Odds as Division Opponents Stumble

Losing two of three to the Tigers sucked out loud, but both the Cardinals and Brewers were swept in Thursday doubleheaders to take a little of the sting out of the flop in Detroit. However, the Reds winning both games against Milwaukee means the upcoming four-game set in Cincy takes on additional significance.

The Reds have shot up in a big way over the last few days and now boast slightly better odds than the Brewers, though they’re still lagging behind the Cardinals. An interesting note about the Cards: They actually have the lowest Wild Card (14.4%) and World Series odds (1.9%) from among the non-Cubs in the division. No, the Pirates don’t count.

The Dodgers (24-9) have a 100% chance of making the expanded postseason, followed closely by the Braves (96.4%) and Cubs. Interestingly enough, the Slam Diego Padres (93.6%) are in the mix for one of those top four seeds by a very wide margin. The Cards (62.5%) are fifth, but they’ve still got several games to make up and could see some big changes as those play out.

While the Cubs have maintained a healthy division lead and playoff odds well in excess of 90% for weeks, those trends could shift this weekend. Anything less than a series split with the Reds would see David Ross’s team tumbling in a big way, so they should strongly consider avoiding such an outcome.