Quantifying Hope: Cubs Enter White Sox Series with 6.4% Playoff Odds

The Cubs and White Sox were on fairly similar trajectories when they last met back in early June, but things have changed a little bit since then. Even with the Cubs’ struggles, the Sox have set the bar so low for Chicago baseball that even losing their next 45 in a row to be 57-105 would put the North Siders ahead of their counterparts. Well, that’s assuming the Sox don’t go better than 30-15 down the stretch.

But just being better than the abject failure of an organization Jerry Reinsdorf has run into the ground isn’t good enough. Or at least it shouldn’t be. The Cubs are still mired in a clutch of teams battling for third through fifth in the NL Central and are within striking distance of the Cardinals, plus they’ve gained a little ground in the Wild Card race.

As slim as those 6.4% chances are on paper, they’ve gained a little weight over the last week and could improve quite a bit more in just a couple days.

This little two-gamer on the South Side is weird as hell because it means getting Sunday off, though that could be a good thing because it allows Craig Counsell to shorten his rotation. Or maybe he wants to lean on the bullpen a little more now that it’s been more trustworthy. Given the remaining schedule in August, to say nothing for a pretty weak September as well, the Cubs could still make some noise.

Maybe that’s nothing better than the sound of a wet fart signaling the end of any hope, but I’ll keep holding on for a while yet.