Chicago Cubs Lineup

Chicago Cubs Lineup (8/18/24): Same Batting Order, Imanaga Starting

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanAugust 18, 2024

After dropping their first two games in Cleveland by one run apiece to set up an easy sweep by the Guardians, the Cubs have now taken the first two games of this Blue Jays series by the slimmest possible margin. They’ve done in it vastly different manners, blasting their way to a big lead before barely surviving a bullpen implosion before eeking out three runs and hanging on thanks to (mostly) shutdown performances from six different relievers.

Now they have a chance to get to even in the last six games while possibly moving into sole possession of second place in the division. And depending on what happens with the other teams ahead of them in the Wild Card, the Cubs could improve their playoff hopes dramatically. We really shouldn’t still be talking about this team as a postseason contender, yet here we are.

This team’s pendulum has swung back and forth wildly all season, but what if the Cubs actually ride this momentum for a prolonged stretch? Probably too much to hope for, even with Shota Imanaga on the mound with a chance to close the series out. He’ll need to be better than he was the last time out in Cleveland, when he allowed seven runs (three earned) on seven hits. A lot of folks want to blame a bad call by the home plate ump, but an ace needs to be able to overcome those obstacles.

The lineup has remained more or less the same for a while now, with Ian Happ leading off in left and Michael Busch at first. Seiya Suzuki indeed looks to remain as the primary DH at this point with Cody Bellinger in right, then it’s Isaac Paredes at third, Nico Hoerner at second, and Dansby Swanson at short. Pete Crow-Armstrong is in center and Miguel Amaya is the catcher.

Update: Paredes has been scratched due to right shoulder discomfort, so Patrick Wisdom is playing third and batting eighth with the previous 6-8 hitters moving up.

They’re facing 28-year-old Bowden “Lighten Up” Francis, who I can honestly say I’ve never heard of before. That’s wild, right? Seriously, I am coming into this breakdown with zero knowledge of him, which is crazy because he debuted in 2022 and has made 41 big league appearances. Maybe it’s because he’s been mainly a reliever and has only started sporadically.

Despite making only six starts out of 20 total appearances, Francis should be fully stretched out and can work deep if needed. He tossed seven innings of one-hit ball against the Angels to get the win his last time out and even got a win and no-decision in his two previous starts, both against the Orioles. Despite what you might think from his 4.92 ERA and 5.08 FIP, this dude has been legit for the most part.

Take away his first two starts of the season in which he allowed 12 earned runs over 8.1 innings and Francis has a 3.54 ERA. His strikeouts have jumped up lately as well, with 15 over 12 innings in his last two starts. There may be a little good fortune tied up in that, however, as his FIP is a run higher over that sample of 18 appearances and Francis is a strike-thrower without good enough stuff to consistently put batters away. This is where I include the caveat that this Cubs team is uniquely able to make mediocre pitchers look great on any given day.

Francis throws his 94 mph four-seam around 53% of the time and typically locates at the top of the zone, though he gets into trouble when he leaves it middle-middle. That will be the key to his afternoon because his curveball and slider have both been pretty awful so far. The slow hook stays up above the bottom of the zone and is tagged, while the slider’s heat map has a bright red blob just below the heart of the zone.

There’s also a splitter that sees about a 15% usage rate and can be effective when he commands it, which isn’t too often. Since all his secondaries move glove-side, Francis pitches to reverse splits that see right-handed batters perform much better across nearly every metric. Those numbers do even out on the road, however, so maybe he won’t be victimized at Wrigley.

This is a big game for the Cubs, who have Monday off before welcoming the Tigers to town. First pitch is at 1:20pm CT on Marquee and 670 The Score.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanAugust 18, 2024
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