Season Dying Quietly, Rotation Velocity Lowest Again, Bellinger’s Murky Future, Prospects Offer New Life
While it’s not impossible to make up five games on two different teams with just 13 games to play, dropping two of three to the hapless Rockies more or less nailed the Cubs’ coffin shut. They put up more of a fight than just about anyone could have imagined back in June, as they rallied to get back above .500 and could finish in second place after battling for the basement for much of the summer. Not that anyone’s interested in such moral victories.
The Cubs can’t offer any Morel victories either, but at least Isaac Paredes has come around enough lately to keep that trade from looking like a huge blunder. Short of a miracle over these last two weeks, nothing should stop the slow circling of the drain taking place on the North Side. And in spite of a really fun few weeks in the second half, there’s little memorable about the team Jed Hoyer assembled this season.
Does anyone else wish we could just simulate the remaining games and get the recaps to avoid following in real-time? I’m just not sure what there is to be gained unless the front office makes some personnel moves to get a few young guys up from Iowa. More on that in a bit. First, I want to look at an aspect of the team that has gone unaddressed for several years now.
The Cubs should end up with MLB’s lowest average fastball velocity for the fifth year in a row and the sixth time in eight seasons. They ended in a three-way tie for 27th in 2018 and landed at 29 the following year, both times just two-tenths of a tick ahead of the last-place squads. Velocity obviously isn’t everything, but the Cubs (91.7 mph) were the only rotation to average under 92 mph and were two full miles per hour below all of the top 14 teams.
A lot of that will be alleviated by Kyle Hendricks moving on after the season, then you consider how Ben Brown and possibly Cade Horton will bring the numbers up as well. Still, Hoyer can’t be content with merely internal improvements in this area. I’ve seen Nathan Eovaldi brought up as a good fit and I don’t disagree, though I wonder whether he’ll want to walk away from his $20 million option with the Rangers. His option vests at 300 innings pitched across 2023-24 and he’s at 296 now, so he should get there during Tuesday’s start.
After getting input from some folks who have paid a little more attention to this than I have, I’m inclined to believe Eovaldi can and will get more in free agency. He’s been very consistent over two years in Arlington and should command maybe twice what he’d be guaranteed to remain there, even entering his age-35 season. His fastball velocity is down a couple ticks from his 97.5 mph with the Red Sox in 2019, but he’s still in the 74th percentile for velo and figures to stay around 95 for the next two years.
We can apply much of that same logic to Cody Bellinger, who can choose to hit the market or remain with the Cubs for another year at $27.5 million. He’s also got a $25 option for 2026, so it’s effectively a matter of whether he can do better than two years and $50 million in free agency. And just in case the math looks wonky, I accounted for the $2.5 million buyout on his salary in ’25. Some folks have said there’s no way another team will pay him what the Cubs may have to, which is an argument based more on AAV.
Bellinger doesn’t need to make $25+ million annually to do better, he just needs to get more total money over more guaranteed years. That’s something we saw with Bryce Harper, also a Scott Boras client, and it stands to reason that Bellinger would try to get more security after falling woefully short of initial desires and projections last offseason. Then again, maybe he prefers to stay in Chicago.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale recently noted that Bellinger “is fully expected to remain with the Cubs” next season, but that doesn’t hold much water for me. That’s not just about the long-running joke about Nightengale’s predictions portending the opposite, it’s also the idea that Boras could be using the media to stoke demand for his player. If this ends up being correct, it puts Hoyer in a tougher spot when it comes to finding room for prospects.
Maybe the Cubs will just leave all their top young players in Iowa to start the 2025 season, but it’s become apparent that at least one of them is ready for the big time. Owen Caissie has been a level-a-year guy with the Cubs and has nothing left to prove after over 1,000 plate appearances at Double- and Triple-A the last two seasons. He’ll have to be able to get regular time in right field and/or DH, however, so Bellinger staying makes that tough.
Matt Shaw doesn’t have as much professional experience, but he’s about eight months older and has nearly as much power with a lot more speed. His power numbers are up since getting out of the dead-ball Southern League and looks to be ready for the bigs right now. Shaw’s ascension isn’t directly tied to Bellinger, but it would probably require the Cubs to move Nico Hoerner or Parades.
Then you’ve got Moises Ballesteros, James Triantos, and Kevin Alcántara, not all of whom are likely to make it to Chicago. I tend to believe the front office views two or three of these players as members of the Next Great Cubs team and the others as trade chips. Shaw is probably the closest to untouchable and I’d say they slot Caissie second with the others grouped closely behind.
Mo Baller is incredibly hitterish and won’t be 21 until November, so they’re in no hurry to make a decision on him one way or the other. Triantos could also stand a little more seasoning, but I think he’s also the most likely to be moved in the right deal. The key with Alcantara is whether and when the game power catches up with his 60-grade potential. Having all these stud prospects at Iowa is a great problem to have, but it’s next to impossible to thread the needle with all of them contributing to the big league club at some point.
How Hoyer navigates their respective futures may be the key to whether he’s in Chicago for years to come or is shown the door before his contract is up. We’ll have a lot of time to dig into all of this and more once the offseason mercifully arrives.