AP Photo/Erin Hooley

The Rundown: Jed Hoyer Performance Review, Imanaga Magnificent in Latest Outing, White Sox Nearing Record for Futility

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 18, 2024

“Jeux sans frontières.” – Peter Gabriel, Games Without Frontiers

I thought a week of traveling would help relax my angst toward Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer, but I was wrong. While I was in Nashville, a report by Bob Nightengale surfaced that indicated friction exists in Chicago’s front office. On the one hand, you could dismiss the report because of the source, if that’s your preference, and Nightengale did say that Hoyer is expected to return in 2025. On the other hand, the friction could be compounded by other factors that might skew toward a change or restructuring this winter. I’m firmly in the latter camp and I suppose it’s because of the use of the word “expected” instead of “will.”

I don’t have a PhD in Semiotics, but I’m old enough to understand that anything that sounds less than a guarantee is usually a sign of pending change. Hoyer will be a lame-duck executive next year with a contract set to expire at the end of the 2025 season. He may not want to stick around if he asks for an extension and is denied. And if Tom Ricketts doesn’t offer an extension, what does that say about his faith in Hoyer?

Another issue that will surface once the season ends regards the relationship between Hoyer and manager Craig Counsell. Milwaukee is a small town and once in a while, I bump into people who know Counsell personally. The general tone I am picking up is that Counsell’s not unhappy with Hoyer, but he’s not untroubled either. Chicago’s first-year manager has had his ups and downs this year and is certainly not blameless for the team’s inconsistent season. The Cubs are 77-74 with 11 games remaining, but they’re 21-27 in one-run games. They were 21-24 under David Ross last year.

The Cubs are entering a pivotal offseason and we have a substantial body of work to properly assess Hoyer’s poorer qualities, and how that may determine the short-term path of the organization. I’ve always enjoyed conducting performance reviews.

  1. Hoyer is a stats-at-value recruiter when it comes to free agency, a milquetoast approach to baseball’s annual open market that is deftly promoted as intelligent spending. If you play rotisserie-style fantasy baseball you’ll know exactly what I mean. Players are assigned values before any auction, but those values change based on market conditions, auction enthusiasm, and, because of cap limitations, available dollars leaguewide. Hoyer clings to his values like a drowning man clutches to a life preserver and he won’t pay more than a dollar for a dollar’s production. That type of fiscal policy seeks high floor/low ceiling players, but most often yields teams that struggle to play .500 baseball. Cody Bellinger and Dansby Swanson are perfect examples. The proof is in Hoyer’s record of 305-323 (.486) since succeeding Theo Epstein. By the way, I’d love a utility that lets me calculate the team wRC+ with a similar pitching metric for his entire Cubs’ tenure. That would give us a true assessment of Hoyer’s roster-building ability.
  2. Chicago’s piecemeal bullpen is becoming problematic, especially during the first half of each season. The Cubs’ 24 blown saves this year may only be the median in MLB, but they’re troublesome because most came in the first two months of the season, helping the Brewers gain what has become an insurmountable lead. The Cubs have 31 comeback wins and 32 blown leads this season, tied for 19th in MLB. They’ve also lost seven times when entering the final inning with a lead, and the Rockies are the only team worse than the Cubs at closing winnable games. If you want a silver lining, Chicago is 7-4 in extra-inning games. That’s fine but consider this: The Cubs are 30-40 (.429) in games when their starters have had quality outings. They were 16-31 (.340) in those games through August 8 and that is why they won’t make the playoffs.
  3. Hoyer’s goalposts are too often ambulatory. This will be the third consecutive season that fans will be told that “there is an expectation to compete next year.” Chicago’s chief executive increased payroll by more than $40 million but is on pace to finish with the same 83-79 record as last year. You can thank the team’s 21-34 record in May and June for that.
  4. The Cubs will lean heavily toward a youth movement beginning next season, and the organization’s ability to develop players at the start of their MLB careers is substandard at best. The Orioles, Astros, Guardians, Royals, Nationals, Rays, and Brewers seem like the standard bearers, at least from the catbird seats. Though each organization has had its fair share of washouts, Hoyer has failed at matching their numerous successes.
  5. Have you forgiven Hoyer for replacing Kyle Schwarber with Eric Sogard? I haven’t.

I would be shocked if Ricketts offered Hoyer an extension this winter, though anything’s possible. Contrary to Nightengale’s inference, I believe change is coming to Chicago’s front office and I don’t think Hoyer and GM Carter Hawkins will be tasked with running the team in 2025. Both executives could (and should) be fired, but each may simply seek opportunities elsewhere.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

Remember when Emmanuel Clase was all but bound for the Cubs? Those were some good times.

Ball Four

A good general manager will find a way to get Owen Caissie significant at-bats with the Cubs in 2025. Which is your preferred path to playing time for the young star, considering Bellinger may stay with the team and neither Ian Happ nor Seiya Suzuki can be traded without their permission?

  1. Trade Busch and move Bellinger to first base.
  2. Trade Crow-Armstrong, move Bellinger to center, and give Caissie the gig in right.
  3. Trade Paredes, move Busch to third, and Bellinger to first.
  4. Keep Caissie at Iowa until somebody gets hurt or is traded.

This is the biggest problem Hoyer has created if Bellinger does not exercise his opt-out. I’d put the chances of Belli staying at 65/35 in favor if you’re wondering how I lean. Hoyer may also regret not trading Jameson Taillon at peak value this year, though I want him to stay. Taillon reminds me of 2016 John Lackey if you’re okay with comparing Justin Steele to Jon Lester.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

The White Sox are asking fans to have a sense of humor while watching them lose at a historic rate. The South Siders are five losses shy of breaking the record for most losses in a season since the dawn of the 20th century. There is nothing funny about a team that has lost 45 of its previous 54 games.

ChiSox GM Chris Getz said he won’t do any heavy lifting in free agency this winter. What’s the MLB record for most losses in two years?

Bobby Witt Jr. became the first shortstop in MLB history to record two 30-30 seasons.

Jose Altuve lost his shoe, his sock, and his mind before being ejected Tuesday night.

Mike Trout is open to changing positions next season if it will keep him from injuring himself.

Luis Arráez had his streak of plate appearances without a strikeout stopped at 141. Tony Gwynn holds the MLB record at 170, and ex-Cub Juan Pierre is second all-time with 147.

Cardinals catcher Willson Contreras will be sidelined for the remainder of the season with a fractured middle finger.

I Love L.A. (but not the Dodgers)

Hollywood Boulevard and Sunset Strip are chock full of rich history and a fair share of oddities, and there are a handful of documentaries that are worth your time to watch on YouTube. When I’m in Hollywood, you can always find me at The Frolic Room for last call. The bartenders there remember my name and my drink, and the jukebox plays Celluloid Heroes by The Kinks every evening as patrons exit onto the boulevard at 2am.

  1. Slash: Raised on the Sunset Strip
  2. The Rainbow Room
  3. Sunset Strip (watch with a free trial subscription)
  4. All Things Must Pass (History of Tower Records)
  5. Gibson TV: Doug Weston’s Troubadour
  6. The Hollywood Ghosts of the Legendary Viper Room

Don’t Forget To…

Check out our latest stuff over at Bears Insider. Your mother would approve.

Extra Innings

Too little, too late, and too bad. Wait ’til next year, Cubs fans.

They Said It

  • “The [team] has been pretty resilient. I know that’s an overused word, probably. But there are a lot of points in this year where things could have gone pretty sour. We’re definitely not happy with where we are in the standings and things like that. We didn’t set out to be in the wild-card race. The goal is to win divisions and dominate. There were some situations where things could have really gone south. The prep and the continuity and those things that breed consistency have been impressive.” – Nico Hoerner
  • “The guys in the room have experience. It’s having seen it done a lot of different ways and understanding that it is a 162-game season. There are a lot of guys who have posted and played long enough to understand that it’s not always linear. Everybody’s going to go out and give their best effort, regardless of what’s happened in the last week, month or five months. The goal is still to go out and win division titles and run away with it. But when the year shapes up the way it did for the first few months, you understand that when you’re in Game 100, there’s still two months of baseball and a lot can happen.” – Happ
  • “Sports is frustrating. I’ve been on good teams — this team is good. We’ve been saying it all along. We just had this crazy stretch. If we minimize that stretch, then we’re having a little different story here. It’s not over yet.” – Bellinger

Tuesday Walk-Up Song

Let’s stick with Gabriel. You can’t do much worse, and besides, this is such an uplifting song.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterSeptember 18, 2024
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