Several MLBTR Predictions Have Cubs Landing Lefty Max Fried, Plus More Potential FA Destinations

The Cubs are looking to get creative and find value around the margins, which is just a different way of saying they’re trying to thread the needle. A strong argument could be made for them being capable of 90 wins with a more consistent bullpen and a little more offense last year, and it sounds like Jed Hoyer is approaching the offseason with that in mind. But don’t go thinking that means he’s simply looking to be frugal.

This is more like having the worst home in the nicest neighborhood in town and performing a little DIY renovation work to improve the curb appeal. I was going to say the cheapest home, but that makes it sound like the Cubs aren’t spending money. They may not be spending enough, relatively speaking, but a payroll north of $225 million should be more than enough to compete in the NL Central and beyond.

Even if they’re sticking to upper middle-class free agents rather than splurging on the biggest contract(s) in franchise history, there could be some big names on the radar. The most common out there is lefty Max Fried, who’s spent his entire MLB career with the Braves after being traded to them by the Padres as part of the deal for Justin Upton. Now entering his age-31 season Fried hits the market as the No. 6 free agent in MLB Trade Rumors’ annual top 50 list.

The quartet of Anthony Franco, Tim Dierkes, Darragh McDonald, and Steve Adams predicted him to land a deal for $156 million over six years, with three of them — Dierkes, McDonald, Adams — saying it’ll be with the Cubs. That $26 million AAV would eat up nearly 60% of the team’s buffer beneath the CBT penalty threshold as things currently stand, though there will be several other additions and subtractions.

Wouldn’t it be wild if the only two Cubs with nine-figure deals were former Braves who weren’t among the top two available players at their position in a given offseason? Some see Blake Snell (5/$160M) as a target too, which I think is far more likely than Corbin Burnes (7/$200M) even if the AAV on the latter is more than $4 million lower.

There will be plenty of time to dive into the specific merits of Fried and a number of other options, so let’s turn for now to a few other top-50 free agents of interest.

9) Anthony Santander – 4/$80 million
No one predicted him to the Cubs, and that’s to be expected with Cody Bellinger opting back in. Even considering the possibility of a Bellinger trade, adding a big-ticket outfielder isn’t terribly likely given their prospect depth at the position. But that power sure would be nice.

10) Sean Manaea – 3/$60 million
Franco is the only one to have the Cubs on Manaea, perhaps because he grew up and played prep ball in The Region. He’ll turn 33 in February but is coming off what was arguably his best season and represents pretty solid value at a deal like this. If the Cubs miss out on one of those higher-end pitchers, I could see them targeting Manaea and another short-term deal for value.

17) Nathan Eovaldi – 2/$44 million
Even though he’s heading into his age-35 season and has had injury issues in the past, this is a deal I think would look better to the Cubs. None of the MLBTR guys think he’ll land on the North Side, though.

21) Clay Holmes – 3/$30 million
May as well kill two birds with one stone here, as I’ve named both of these guys as being fits for a team that appears to be willing to spend bigger on the bullpen. Again, no MLBTR writers linked either to the Cubs.

22) Carlos Estévez – 3/$27 million
See above

30) Danny Jansen – 2/$20 million
The Cubs were reportedly engaged in trade talks with the Blue Jays before he was shipped to the Red Sox, and Dierkes believes there could still be interest. Signing Jansen would effectively relegate Moises Ballesteros to DH duty, which won’t work if Seiya Suzuki is in that role. And I know how much a lot of folks want Mo Baller or Matt Shaw to at least be on the bench, but that serves no purpose for either’s development. This one makes sense to me if there is at least one significant trade to open up space elsewhere.

32) Michael Conforto – 2/$18 million
The Cubs aren’t named here, but I’d like them to be if they see fit to upgrade their outfield depth by swapping out Michaels. As good as Mike Tauchman has been, his 15 homers in 750 PAs over the last two years for the Cubs fall five short of what Conforto hit in 488 PAs for the Giants last year. And that’s with Oracle Park crushing his offensive output. This would add a lot of pop at a low price, perfect for Hoyer’s MO, but he might be looking for more guaranteed playing time.

34) A.J. Minter – 2/$16 million
Franco has the Cubs here and more pessimistic fans will surely note that Minter is probably a Cubs target because his 2024 campaign was riddled with injuries and ended with him on the 60-day IL. I’m not sure I see the Cubs taking a multiyear risk on a dude who had hip surgery in mid-August, but we’ll see.

37) Walker Buehler – 1/$15 million
The Cubs aren’t mentioned here, but I’d be all over this if Buehler’s market indeed ends up here. I have a strong suspicion that his postseason showing will earn him more in both length and AAV, particularly if the Dodgers feel strongly that his health is on track.

44) Shane Bieber – 1/$12 million
Here’s another one I like a whole lot as a bounceback candidate. Bieber was already back to throwing weighted plyos during the postseason and says he’s on track for a “semi-normal” spring after missing most of the year with elbow reconstruction. Assuming the Cubs end up doing a bigger deal for another starter, Bieber would provide inexpensive depth with big upside.

That’s it for now, but take a look at that MLBTR top 50 and let us know who you’d like the Cubs to pursue. Othan than Juan Soto, we already know the score there.