Cubs Linked to Walker Buehler, Shane Bieber Generating Serious Interest
The Cubs are prioritizing pitching this offseason, with Max Fried being mentioned most often as a good fit. The only problem is that he’s going to cost them a lot more than his presumed nine-figure contract because the Braves extended him a qualifying offer. Signing a QO player doesn’t seem to fit Jed Hoyer’s philosophy in general, but they’ll surely wait until they know what’s happening with Roki Sasaki before even entertaining the notion. Two other possibilities are Walker Buehler and Shane Bieber, both of whom have also been connected to the Cubs.
Jon Morosi recently named them as being interested in Buehler, though the Braves have an even greater need for starters and may be more attractive beyond just money. There is quite a gap in the predictions for his next deal, with MLB Trade Rumors at one year and $15 million while Kiley McDaniel of ESPN says Buehler will get $54 million over three years. I’m not so sure the injury-plagued righty fits the Cubs’ value model if he ends up past the midway point there.
Willy Adames. Walker Buehler. Christian Walker.@jonmorosi provides some updates on the outlook of three highly-coveted free agents this offseason! pic.twitter.com/ytVNRd5Fji
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) November 15, 2024
MLBTR is even lower on Shane Bieber, which I think is a gaffe on their part. The former Cy Young winner looked great prior to blowing out his elbow early in the season and he is on schedule for a semi-normal spring training. His pedigree alone should net him more than one year at $12 million, and it sounds like he’s gathering enough interest to more than triple that amount. McDaniel has him getting the same deal as Buehler, which may likewise be more than where the Cubs have him pegged.
According to McDaniel, a lot of baseball execs view Bieber almost like getting a potential top-of-the-rotation pitcher as part of a midseason trade. He could either be a piece that puts a team over the top or — and this would require coming back in time to make a few starts — a candidate to be flipped at the deadline. Of course, he’s probably not interested in that kind of scenario and demand should allow him to get more than a one-year deal.
I tend to put a lot more credence in McDaniel’s predictions, especially after MLBTR’s numbers last year, but I think both of these guys end up with something in the middle relative to the guarantee. Maybe a modest base amount for one year followed by club/mutual options, or a three-year deal with opt-outs. Regardless of how they end up being structured, I don’t see the Cubs being serious suitors unless they make another move for more of a sure thing.
While that doesn’t really exist in baseball, especially not with pitchers, Hoyer needs to find some big upside out there. In that regard, I guess I could see Bieber as being more attractive to them from a value standpoint because of that midseason boost with the potential to keep pitching well for another year or two beyond. The Cubs were interested in trading for him last year before he got hurt and Carter Hawkins is very familiar with him from their time together in Cleveland. Now it may be a matter of seeing whether and how his market develops.
I get the sense that the Cubs are going to remain really quiet heading into the Winter Meetings, at which point we’re going to see some big moves. Not monster contracts, mind you, but a trade or two involving one or more of their top prospects.