Now We’ll See How Well Cubs Pitched Cody Bellinger as Plan B for Juan Soto Suitors
Juan Soto just signed the largest contract in sports history, agreeing to a 15-year deal with the Mets that guarantees him $765 million and can max out at $805 million. That easily eclipses Shohei Ohtani‘s $700 and dwarfs the two-way player’s $460 million-ish net present value, as none of Soto’s money is deferred. That means the Mets are on the hook for an MLB-record $51 million average annual value over the next decade and a half. The Yankees reportedly offered $760 million for 16 years and the Red Sox pushed to $700 million for 15 years.
Remember when people thought Soto was crazy for turning down the Nationals’ $440 million extension a couple years ago, a move that ultimately led to him being traded to San Diego? Despite having just turned 26, Soto is already playing for his fourth MLB team and second in New York City alone. This was the destination I’d predicted a while back, not like that’s much of a feat, and the fact that Soto made his decision so quickly — which is pretty impressive for a Scott Boras client — the Winter Meetings and offseason in general should really rev up.
Near the top of the list for Jed Hoyer is busting out his wakeboard to take advantage of the Soto aftermath. The Cubs have been working to establish Cody Bellinger as a much cheaper option for teams that missed out on Soto, though a price tag that’s roughly 15 times less even if Bellinger opts in for 2026 means more than three teams should be interested. I didn’t include the Dodgers, who just added Michael Conforto and could still be in the market to bring Teoscar Hernández back.
Do the Dodgers know something we don’t about roster expansion or what? They seem to be adding way more players than they should otherwise have room for, and everything indicates they’re not done yet. Must be nice.
The Yankees looked like an ideal fit for Bellinger even had they retained Soto’s services, and now they might have even more impetus to add a lefty bat. Brian Cashman isn’t going to be out there pitting out with desperate anxiety over it or anything, but Hoyer certainly gained a little leverage. Houston looks like a strong possibility as well, though not being in on Soto means they can play it a little cooler if necessary.
We’ve also heard that the Mariners are interested and that they may be interested in fielding offers for Luis Castillo, something we discussed last week. Seattle baseball boss Jerry Dipoto keeps saying they don’t want to deal from an otherwise young rotation, though that comes across like word salad based on what are now multiple reports about Castillo. Even if nothing works out there, the Cubs do appear to be far more interested in trading for a starter than acquiring one via free agency.
For now, anyway. Regardless of how you feel about Hoyer’s methods, you have to kind of respect his dogged adherence to a value-based player acquisition model that rarely sees the Cubs reaching for a player. Or maybe you don’t have to respect that at all since it keeps them in a position where they may end up being even more reliant on players outperforming their projections than most other teams.
Rather than simply being a reality, which is to say that almost every successful team has a breakout player or three, waiting for discounts turns those unexpected performances into a necessity. Would biding their time until the price for Jack Flaherty or Walker Buehler comes down net the Cubs a difference-making starter with enough helium to lift the team? Doubtful. A Castillo deal would no doubt aid the rotation for at least three years, but he’s probably a No. 3 at this point.
The only rumored move so far that would give the Cubs a bona fide high-ceiling dude is an intracity trade for Garrett Crochet. Even that is fraught with issues, however, as it would cost the Cubs at least one of their top three prospects and probably a big league arm while also giving them four southpaws in the rotation. I’ve addressed how Crochet’s pitch profile and stronger performance against right-handed hitters make him different from the Cubs’ other lefties, but it’s still something to weigh.
What the Cubs do with Bellinger could set the tone for the rest of the offseason. Sending him to New York for low-level prospects would likely indicate the intention to reallocate his salary, while a deal with Seattle for Castillo would probably be a more even contract swap. Either way, it doesn’t seem as though Hoyer is in any hurry to bolster the offense. To me, that says the club is very confident in the continued growth of Pete Crow-Armstrong and the ability of the Owen Caissie/Kevin Alcántara duo to produce something close to what Bellinger provided in 2024.
It’s a very reasonable expectation on paper and one could argue that the ceiling is indeed higher with those players, not to mention Matt Shaw, than with Bellinger. The problem is that the floor is also lower with rookies. Therein lies the paradox Hoyer has to navigate this winter as he retools his roster to be younger — and likely cheaper if you want to go that route — and more capable of winning 90+ games. Whatever happens, I’d just love to be able to write something other than speculation.