Interesting Ménage à Trois Developing Between Cubs, Astros, Yankees
The Cubs have been very heavily connected to right fielder Kyle Tucker, who the Astros seem increasingly likely to move. The Astros have inquired about Cody Bellinger, who the Cubs are most definitely trying to move. The Yankees have had talks with both teams about those same players, plus they are believed to be the leading suitors for Alex Bregman. The possible departure of their All-Star third baseman has Houston seeking a replacement, hence Isaac Paredes‘ inclusion in preliminary trade talks with the Cubs.
Make sense so far? Good, let’s press on.
If the Yankees signing Bregman is the first domino to fall, the Cubs, who are already aggressively pursuing a Tucker deal, would seem to gain a big edge on that front. That would have the Yankees perhaps increasing the focus on Bellinger, who has been connected to New York for a while and looks like a no-brainer as a lefty-batting first baseman/outfielder. The Yanks didn’t pick up Anthony Rizzo‘s option and will slide Aaron Judge back to right field with Juan Soto gone, making Bellinger a natural.
That short porch in right, not to mention the favorable dimensions of other AL East parks, would help to offset Bellinger’s meager batted-ball numbers in the same way Daikin Park’s Crawford Boxes in left play better for Paredes. Unloading Bellinger’s guaranteed $32.5-52.5 million would give Jed Hoyer a lot more breathing room to pitch his boss on an extension for Tucker that could more than double the previous franchise record deal given to Jason Heyward and could get to $40 million or more annually.
Except that the Yankees don’t want to take Bellinger at full freight and the Cubs don’t want to eat any of the money, as Jon Heyman reported Wednesday. That sounds like more of a negotiating stance, as it stands to reason that the Cubs would have to absorb some of the cost in light of their situation and the uncertainty of Bellinger’s future beyond this year. I can’t blame a team for wanting a little insurance against the possibility of another disappointing season leading to Bellinger opting in after another underwhelming campaign.
There’s also a sense that Hoyer and Brian Cashman are in a bit of a staredown, or that there’s perhaps a tacit understanding that the Yankees would “let” the Cubs have Tucker so long as Bregman is in navy pinstripes. That could mean it’s a matter of how much it’s worth to Hoyer to ostensibly buy the Yankees out of contention for their top trade target. But wait, could Houston try to extract more for Tucker as a result?
We know based on reports that they’ve asked about Paredes and Seiya Suzuki, along with fast-rising prospect Cam Smith and others. The former appears by all accounts to be the easiest part of a hypothetical deal to square for both sides, but Smith is probably too much if the Cubs are willing to part with Owen Caissie in the deal. As much as they like the Canadian ginger, acquiring Tucker and keeping Suzuki leaves him nowhere to go.
Suzuki was the Cubs’ best hitter last year and is the clubhouse leader to be so again in 2025 unless they acquire Tucker. Doing so would give Craig Counsell a tremendous left-right punch in the top four of his order, assuming Suzuki can get comfortable being the primary DH for more than just the last few weeks of a season. His agent, Joel Wolfe, shared Tuesday that Suzuki wasn’t particularly keen on that role and indicated that he wouldn’t have signed with a team that pitched him on DH’ing.
His production and price make him too valuable to move without a monster haul, and it’s hard to see another team believing strongly enough in his defense to give up what it’ll take. As good as Tucker is, and he’s probably better than you think unless you already realize he’s been a top 10-15 hitter in MLB for the last five years now, expecting him to essentially replace both Suzuki and Bellinger would be a bad idea.
Depending on how much credence you put in Hoyer’s comments, it sure sounds like the Cubs are planning to massage Suzuki’s ego or whatever.
“I’ve got a great relationship with both Seiya and Joel,” Hoyer told the Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro in Dallas. “We’ve had conversations about his role, DHing, all those things, but ultimately, he’s a really good player. I expect him to be a Cub.”
It’s not at all unrealistic to think that the Astros could replace Bregman and Tucker with Paredes and Caissie while the Yankees replace Soto and Rizzo with Bregman and Bellinger and the Cubs replace Paredes and Bellinger with Tucker. Also Matt Shaw, but that’s not a trade. There are also going to be several other players involved, which brings me to my final point here.
There are a couple pervasive detractions I’m seeing out there regarding a potential Tucker deal. The first is that parting with Caissie, Paredes, and some combination of players and prospects that could include Hayden Wesneski or Ben Brown is too much for a year of the elite hitter. The other is that the Cubs would never even bother with the kind of extension it’ll take to sign Tucker long-term because they’ve never done anything like it before.
My argument would be that there’s a first time for everything and that Hoyer is fighting for his career at this point. We know he hates the idea of deals that stretch beyond six or seven years and that he’s loath to pay for depreciation, but it’s also true that he prefers to shop the trade market rather than free agency. As for the high acquisition cost, well, why the hell else would a team build up a farm system featuring eight top-100 prospects? At the risk of being overly reductive, those minor leaguers serve one of two purposes: To impact the big league team or to bring in players who will.
There is zero value in leaving several MLB-ready guys in Iowa based on the fear that they might blossom elsewhere if traded. So if the Cubs can acquire an elite-level player without dealing more than one of their top-10 prospects, they need to do it. Yes, even if it’s for a rental. Because you know what? They’ve still got the capital to make another move. Home runs might be happy accidents, but no one every put a ball over the fence by squaring up to bunt.
I need Hoyer to tighten up his batting gloves and take a flippin’ daddy hack at this one.
Ed. note: Anyone else remember the play in Houston on May 15, 2023 (pictured) when Bellinger jumped against the wall to catch a fly ball and came down awkwardly, hurting his knee and going on the IL for a month? The hitter he robbed of extra bases on that play was none other than Mr. Tucker. Also, apologies if this got a little sloppy, had to rush the edits.