Twins Listening to Pablo López Trade Offers, Should Cubs Be Involved?
No sooner had the report from Jeff Passan come out that the Twins have listened to offers on righty Pablo López than Cubs fans starting envisioning the possibility of bringing him to the North Side. López, that is, not Passan. Although I suppose the now-dead trade talks involving Jesus Luzardo tell us Jed Hoyer isn’t averse to people with a history of back injuries. And while López has a much stronger pedigree as a starter who can actually be trusted to put up innings, there are some complicating factors.
The first is that the Cubs would have to teach him to throw left-handed so they can accomplish their goal of having at least four southpaws in the rotation. It’s doubtful any pitcher not named Yu Darvish would be able to accomplish that feat by the start of spring training, so we can probably throw this idea out the window right now.
Another issue is the four-year, $73 million extension Lopez signed with Minnesota after being traded there from Miami in early 2023. The deal runs through the 2027 season and will pay the righty $21,750,000 over the next three years with an average annual value of $18.375 million. That’s far from unreasonable for a 29-year-old (in March) mid-rotation starter, but it eats up a very big chunk of the $25 million the Cubs saved by trading Cody Bellinger.
If the goal was to put that money toward a starter, reliever, and fallback third base/utility option, trading for López effectively eliminates one of those. The Cubs are currently an estimated $49-50 million below the first level of tax penalties and certainly have more room beyond the Bellinger windfall, though they’re probably targeting a CBT payroll of no more than $230 million. That would leave them with a little more than $10 million for in-season acquisitions while also maintaining a big enough buffer that they can’t trip over the penalty line again.
Adding López would solidify a rotation that is strong to quite strong as-is even if there’s not much elite upside, plus it helps to insure against the likelihood that Matthew Boyd isn’t a workhorse. That might be well worth it for a Cubs team that was or should have been hot after Nathan Eovaldi prior to his return to the Rangers on a three-year, $75 million deal. López is a little more than six years younger and has very comparable numbers to Eovaldi, so having less overall salary and a much lower CBT hit weighs heavily in his favor.
Which of these lines would you prefer:
127 starts, 719.1 IP, 3.70 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 9.76 K/9, 2.33 BB/9, 1.08 HR/9
115 starts, 654.2 IP, 3.75 ERA, 3.63 FIP, 8.97 K/9, 2.08 BB/9, 1.13 HR/9
If you went with the no-brainer of Option 1, you chose López. Another similarity between the two is their mid-90s fastball velocity, though López has trended up to 95 mph over the last few years while Eovaldi has come down to that mark after being at 97+ prior to crossing into his 30s. The Cubs were never going to come close to matching the Rangers’ offer, but would they be able to spend a little less on a younger, better pitcher? That answer will come down to what it’ll cost them to have the privilege of paying López.
This strikes me as a situation in which the Twins saw how the market for starters had exploded and decided they might as well see if they could save a little money while bringing in a big prospect haul. I don’t believe they’re really trying to move López as much as they’d like to see if another team is willing to give them a Godfather offer they can’t refuse. I don’t know what that looks like from the Cubs’ perspective, but it’s reasonable to assume it starts with at least James Triantos, Javier Assad, and more as discussed during the Luzardo proceedings.
For what it’s worth, I like this possibility a lot more due to the higher floor and three years of control for López. Do I like it enough to part with a package that is going to sting quite a bit? That really doesn’t matter since Hoyer is the one who’s got to make the (hypothetical) decision. For me, I guess it comes down to whether there’s enough confidence that one of Jack Flaherty or Walker Buehler will still be hanging around once the Cubs have made their other moves.
Ah, but then you’re looking at mitigating risk with lower cost and limited commitment, and that’s not the sandbox the Cubs need to be playing in right now. If the cost is right in terms of what they’d have to give up, I say go get López and figure out how to fill any remaining roster gaps with the $30 million or so you’ve got left.