The Rundown: Winter Meetings End with Yawn, Hoerner Drawing Trade Interest, Suarez Joins Braves, Cubs Sign Milner

If our Facebook page is a barometer, the Cubs have never and will never sign a significant free agent or execute a big trade. As such, they will head into the 2026 team about 10 players shy of a full 40-man roster because they will refuse to spend money. It’s completely fair to be critical of the team’s habits, but there’s a wide gulf between not spending at all and not spending enough. Perhaps you’d prefer spending judiciously.

“We could have an active December,” Jed Hoyer told reporters at the Winter Meetings. “We could have an active January. I don’t know. We’re not going to do bad deals just to do something quick.”

Baseball’s annual summit ended with a lot of talk and little visible action from the Cubs, who were linked to both Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso this week. The former has yet to sign and the latter inked a five-year, $155 million deal with Baltimore. To me, that Alonso contract is exactly what Hoyer is talking about. At least this contract should end up aging better than the massive misstep with Chris Davis ahead of the 2016 season.

As you may recall, the hulking slugger agreed to a seven-year, $161 million deal with Baltimore that included $42 million in deferred payments through 2037. What seemed shocking at the time now pales in comparison to what the Dodgers are doing, but the problem with Davis’s deal is that his production tanked. After breaking out as one of MLB’s premier power hitters in 2013 and hammering 126 homers with 13.3 fWAR over three seasons, he posted -3.3 fWAR with 92 dingers over five years before retiring due to injury.

While I don’t believe Bregman could possibly crater in a similar fashion, I remain very concerned about how his production will age. As noted previously, his past five seasons have been far worse than the previous five, and he’s about eight months older than Alonso. The big issue I have with Bregman is that his .184 ISO over his last 2,909 plate appearances is 55 points lower than he put up across his first 2,418 PAs. His value lies more in his contact rate and on-base skills, which project better over time at second base.

But the Cubs already have a second baseman, at least for now…

Hoerner Drawing Interest

Nico Hoerner was a hot name in trade talks last season, which didn’t make much sense at the time, and a report from Sahadev Sharma and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic says his name has “popped up” again this winter. There’s some credence to the idea of moving a player in the final year of his contract, but Hoerner provides the Cubs with the most consistent overall output of anyone on the team and could likely be extended for a very reasonable sum.

I’m thinking they could keep him in Chicago for 5-6 years at $75-90 million, maybe with some escalators thrown in there. The report goes on to say that the Cubs are unlikely to move Hoerner, both because he’s an established fan favorite and teammate who perfectly fits what Hoyer likes in his teams. The Cubs would prefer to lean into pitching and defense over offensive firepower, so Hoerner checks a few boxes.

The Cubs will still listen to offers because they’ve long operated under the philosophy that no one is untouchable, but it would take a blockbuster for Hoerner to move. Due to his limited contractual control and lack of loud tools, he alone isn’t going to come close to bringing back the kind of top-of-the-rotation power arm the Cubs are seeking. It would take a package involving top prospects in addition to Hoerner, at which point the resultant lineup and defensive configurations might be a net loss.

There’s also the matter of lining up the values of players and prospects involved. A vast majority of trade talks never go anywhere because teams can’t agree, which is why you see so many more reports about possible deals than how many actually get done. Most people would be shocked by how much goes unreported.

Never say never, but Hoerner looks like a good bet to be a Cub for at least the next year.

Another Tread Signing

The Cubs got a jump on Tread Athletics’ pro day showcase in January by signing longtime Tread athlete and former Mariners reliever Collin Snider. It’s a minor league deal for Dansby Swanson‘s college teammate, who will also reunite with former Tread instructor Tyler Zombro. In a video filmed before he joined the Cubs and eventually took over their minor league pitching development, Zombro explained Snider’s transformation between the 2023 and ’24 seasons.

“Snider is a super-unique pitcher individually, and when he reached out a year ago, I quickly realized that he is a super supinator,” Zombro said. “So his efficiency at times — even this year — he averaged below 50% efficiency on the heater. And for me, I wanted to get him into seam-shift range on the sinker, but with a little of the late-arm scoopy nature of his slot, it was hard to get it there. So seam-shifting the sinker was a bit difficult for us.

“What we really saw when he went from Kansas City to Seattle is he played the outlier angle game. So if you look at his movement plot, it looks a little unconventional. But if we look at the XY boost components of his corresponding VAA and HAA, his cutty four-seam really plays up from that slot.”

Even if you don’t understand the jargon here, that last clause tells you all you need to know about why the Cubs added a guy whose strongest statistical trait is a lack of walks. Snider’s fastball sits just over 92 mph, but its cut/sink movement profile stands out. As noted in a previous piece about Michael King and the Cubs’ greater pitching philosophy, leverage cutty four-seams is a major organizational focus.

I’m not saying Snider will be some kind of breakout bullpen star, but I think this signing is very indicative of what Zombro and the front office will target in signing both big and small.

Suarez to Atlanta

The top remaining reliever is off the board as Robert Suarez joins the Braves on a three-year, $45 million deal that was first reported by Jeff Passan. That’s only slightly below what MLB Trade Rumors had projected, and it means the market’s top three high-leverage relievers — Edwin Diaz, Devin Williams — are off the board. It also means the Cubs can no longer complete the Suarez trifecta by signing Rober, Ranger, and Eugenio.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked Tyler Rogers and Luke Weaver ahead of Suarez, which felt a bit off at the time and will likely remain so. Even so, the Cubs still have plenty of options to pivot if they were indeed in on Suarez as previously reported. I tend to find that report a wee bit dubious, though Hoyer does want to add another high-leverage arm.

He also talked about signing multiple guys who can start games, so finding more of a long-relief swingman could be more in the cards than a multiyear deal for a closer/setup type.

Other News and Notes

• Bleacher Nation’s Michael Cerami first reported that the Cubs have signed reliever Hoby Milner. The lefty will turn 35 in January and is coming off a career-high 73 appearances with Texas after appearing in 201 games for the Brewers over the previous three seasons. A workhorse who keeps the ball in the yard, Milner would be more of a lefty specialist for situational usage.
• Former Cubs reliever Mark Leiter Jr. has signed with the A’s for around $3 million, per Jesse Rogers. The splitter specialist came into his own in Chicago, but seemed to have lost his mojo following a trade to the Yankees near the 2024 deadline. Leiter’s 4.89 ERA in New York was more than a run higher than he put up in Chicago over parts of three seasons.
• I wouldn’t put too much into the report that Williams preferred to join Counsell in Chicago prior to signing with the Mets. We’ve heard stuff like that before, but I don’t really buy it this time.
• Famed Wrigleyville-area dad and raconteur Matt Lindner baked a Malört custard pie and claims it was good.

Throwback Cinema

For years, I’ve been circling the 1985 cheeseball coming-of-age drama Vision Quest, starring Matthew Modine as high school wrestler Louden Swain. This is one of those films that is truly of its time, one that only those who liked it when they saw it at a young age can watch fondly. As such, it was a very rough sit for me. Vision Quest is perhaps best known for providing Madonna’s first movie appearance, a cameo as a singer in a bar. I first thought it was just a very visually accurate cover band. This one can be streamed free on Prime if you feel like a nostalgia bomb.