PECOTA is arguably the best publicly accessible projection system. No other methodology projects rookie hitters better, and the system is either the best or close to the best when it comes to projecting several offensive categories.
PECOTA also knows that some players are easier to project than others, so much so that it actually assigns each player a probability of outproducing his projection. Guess who is Number 1 this year? That’s right, Addison Russell.
I’m not surprised that Russell is PECOTA’s biggest breakout candidate. Keep in mind that the gifted short stop hit 21 homers in 2016 while dramatically improving his contact rate in the second half. And he continues to make mechanical adjustments, one of which could be in the works based on recent spring training footage.
I feel dirty saying it because I don’t want to sound too sensational, but if Addy is able to sustain his 2016 second half contact rate, there is a real possibility he produces well above 5 WAR. Did it just get hot in here?