Highlighted by Isaac Paredes, Cubs Have Six Top 100 Prospects Among KATOH’s WAR Projections

Photo of Brendan Miller Brendan MillerMarch 2, 2017

The 2017 KATOH top 100 prospects projection list, developed by Chris Mitchell, was published a few days ago. KATOH attempts to project a prospect’s WAR through his first six MLB season’s using strikeouts, walks, BABIP, power, age, build, scouting notes, and education. The technical details of KATOH’s methodolgy are sort of gory, but if you would like to inundate yourself with math, click that link and knock yourself out.

Most top 100 lists include only four or five Cubs prospects (Eloy Jimenez, Ian Happ, Albert Almora, Jeimer Candelario, and Dylan Cease), but KATOH actually has six Cubs farmhands in the century club. And Cease isn’t even included.

KATOH listed Jimenez (#18), Isaac Paredes (#50), Almora (#71), Candelario (#77), Happ (#82), and Mark Zagunis (#83). The reason Almora, Happ, Candelario, and Zagunis aren’t raked higher despite being so close to the 25-man roster is because all are 5-6 years older than Paredes. KATOH is a gentle reminder of the influence age has on projections.

Even so, you might be surprised to see Paredes, an 18-year-old low-A shortstop, ranked over several players who could play at Wrigley this year. How did this happen? Well, KATOH is especially kind to young players who have elite contact rates at premium positions. When he was 17, Paredes only struck out once every 10 plate appearances and hit .305 in rookie ball, earning a promotion to A-ball by the end of 2016.

KATOH also loves Paredes because his .138 ISO in the Arizona League ranked 30 points higher than the league average. But while the Mexican-born youngster projects to have average pop, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs believes he could tap into even more power without sacrificing contact because of his fluid batting mechanics and weight transfer.

As Paredes ages, he might be best suited for third base because he isn’t as agile as a prototypical shortstop. Still, he would project favorably at the hot corner because of a 60/80 rated arm.

Here’s the complete top 100 list.

Rank Name Team Pos WAR thru First 6 Seasons
1 Andrew Benintendi Red Sox OF 19.2
2 Vladimir Guerrero Blue Jays 3B 18.9
3 Dansby Swanson Braves SS 16.3
4 Austin Meadows Pirates CF 15.4
5 J.P. Crawford Phillies SS 14.6
6 Manuel Margot Padres CF 14.6
7 Yoan Moncada White Sox 2B/3B 13.8
8 Ozzie Albies Braves 2B 13.4
9 Cody Bellinger Dodgers 1B/OF 12.7
10 Kyle Tucker Astros OF 11.6
11 Nick Senzel Reds 3B 11.0
12 Victor Robles Nationals CF 10.7
13 Gleyber Torres Yankees SS 10.5
14 Willy Adames Rays SS 10.4
15 Amed Rosario Mets SS 10.2
16 Jake Bauers Rays 1B/OF 9.9
17 Alex Reyes Cardinals RHP 9.9
18 Eloy Jimenez Cubs LF 9.4
19 Rafael Devers Red Sox 3B 9.3
20 Franklin Barreto Athletics SS 9.3
21 Thomas Szapucki Mets LHP 9.0
22 Mickey Moniak Phillies CF 8.9
23 Tyler O’Neill Mariners OF 8.8
24 Bradley Zimmer Indians CF 8.6
25 Josh Bell Pirates 1B 8.4
26 Dylan Cozens Phillies RF 8.2
27 Alex Verdugo Dodgers CF 8.1
28 Jose De Leon Rays RHP 8.0
29 Triston Mckenzie Indians RHP 8.0
30 Tyler Glasnow Pirates RHP 7.9
31 Lewis Brinson Brewers CF 7.9
32 Michael Kopech White Sox RHP 7.9
33 Raimel Tapia Rockies OF 7.5
34 Josh Hader Brewers LHP 7.4
35 Garrett Stubbs Astros C 7.3
36 Jesse Winker Reds RF 7.2
37 Francis Martes Astros RHP 7.2
38 Lucas Giolito White Sox RHP 7.0
39 Matt Chapman Athletics 3B 6.7
40 A.J. Reed Astros 1B 6.7
41 Franklin Perez Astros RHP 6.6
42 Luke Weaver Cardinals RHP 6.5
43 Kevin Newman Pirates SS 6.5
44 Brandon Nimmo Mets CF 6.5
45 Clint Frazier Yankees RF 6.5
46 Dan Vogelbach Mariners 1B 6.2
47 German Marquez Rockies RHP 6.2
48 Ramon Laureano Astros CF 6.2
49 Tyler Beede Giants RHP 6.0
50 Isaac Paredes Cubs SS 5.8
51 Casey Gillaspie Rays 1B 5.8
52 Aaron Judge Yankees RF 5.8
53 Brent Honeywell Rays RHP 5.7
54 Mike Soroka Braves RHP 5.6
55 Zack Granite Twins CF 5.6
56 David Paulino Astros RHP 5.6
57 Willie Calhoun Dodgers 2B 5.5
58 Luis Arraez Twins 2B 5.5
59 Reynaldo Lopez White Sox RHP 5.5
60 Kolby Allard Braves LHP 5.4
61 Francisco Mejia Indians C 5.4
62 Luis Urias Padres 2B 5.4
63 Derek Fisher Astros CF 5.3
64 Chance Sisco Orioles C 5.3
65 Andrew Toles Dodgers OF 5.2
66 Gavin Cecchini Mets SS 5.2
67 Mitch Keller Pirates RHP 5.2
68 John Schuknecht Angels OF 5.1
69 Dustin Fowler Yankees CF 5.1
70 Alec Hansen White Sox RHP 5.0
71 Albert Almora Cubs CF 5.0
72 Mark Karaviotis Diamondbacks SS 5.0
73 Jonathan Holder Yankees RHP 4.9
74 Jack Flaherty Cardinals RHP 4.8
75 Jeff Hoffman Rockies RHP 4.8
76 Keibert Ruiz Dodgers C 4.7
77 Jeimer Candelario Cubs 3B 4.7
78 Anderson Espinoza Padres RHP 4.6
79 Dominic Smith Mets 1B 4.6
80 Rowdy Tellez Blue Jays 1B 4.6
81 Ben Gamel Mariners OF 4.4
82 Ian Happ Cubs 2B 4.4
83 Mark Zagunis Cubs LF 4.4
84 Mitch Haniger Mariners OF 4.3
85 Max Moroff Pirates IF 4.3
86 Teoscar Hernandez Astros RF 4.2
87 Bruce Maxwell Athletics C 4.2
88 Leody Taveras Rangers OF 4.2
89 Charlie Tilson White Sox OF 4.2
90 Hunter Dozier Royals 3B 4.2
91 Daniel Robertson Rays SS 4.2
92 Stephen Gonsalves Twins LHP 4.2
93 Yadier Alvarez Dodgers RHP 4.2
94 Jose Antequera Phillies 2B 4.1
95 Austin Barnes Dodgers C 4.1
96 Boog Powell Mariners OF 4.1
97 Yohander Mendez Rangers LHP 4.0
98 Adalberto Mejia Twins LHP 4.0
99 Reese Mcguire Blue Jays C 4.0
100 Brock Stewart Dodgers RHP 4.0
Photo of Brendan Miller Brendan MillerMarch 2, 2017
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