Cubs Quick Hits: Arrieta Should be Giving up Fewer Homers

The Cubs are two games below .500 and their once automatic, shut-down ace pitcher is bordering on an ERA that you’d need all five fingers to illustrate. Times have been better. But times should get better, and they should get better sooner rather than later.

You see, Jake Arrieta’s 4.60 ERA is quite different from his 4.01 FIP and 3.61 scFIP (Statcast FIP). We’re talking about a full point difference between what has really happened and what Statcast projects should happen (xStats).

So why the difference between ERA and scFIP. It has to do with Arrieta’s homers. He’s given up 11 dingers on the year, but three of those shouldn’t have left the yard, according to xHR.

Going forward, Arrieta should get better results and prevent more runs. Combine this knowledge of xHR with the fact that his whiff rate is currently at a career high (25.3%) and his grounder rate has a great chance to increase. What does that get us? A very good Jake Arrieta.