Cubs 2018 ZiPS Projections, Pt 1: Position Players Primed for Home Run Barage

Rejoice, good people, for the complete 2018 ZiPS projections are here, and the numbers are heartening. In fact, the Cubs project for at least 3 fWAR at every single position. Every. Single. One.

We’ll get to the unimposing pitching staff in the next go-round, but let’s first start with the hitters, led by Kris Bryant (5.8 WAR), Anthony Rizzo (4.9), and Addison Russell (3.0). Yes, Addison Russell is projected as the third-most-valuable Cubs player for next season by WAR alone. Just behind him is Willson Contreras (2.8), whose impact behind the plate is inherently difficult for any computer to project.

After Contreras are a bunch of ~2 WAR projections, including Jason Heyward (2.3), Ian Happ (2.2), Ben Zobrist (1.9), and Javy Baez (1.7). ZiPS believes all of these players will split time with one another, just like they’ve done in previous seasons.

According to wRC+, the Cubs have five hitters with above-average projections. Among them are Bryant (134 wRC+), Rizzo (137), Happ (107), Schwarber (110), and Contreras (106).

There is also a legit possibility that this squad will have four hitters with over 30 homers, as Bryant (34), Rizzo (33), and Schwarber (31), Happ (28) are all in that range. That’s absolutely insane, but then you consider that Baez (20), Russell (17), and Contreras (17) all have big expectations as well. That means, in total, the Cubs have seven players sniffing at least 20 homers.

Some of the hitting comparisons are entertaining, particularly those for Bryant and Happ. The best third baseman in baseball is compared to a former best third baseman in baseball, who also happened to play for the Cubs: Ron Santo. Somewhat ironically, Happ’s comp is new Cubs hitting coach Chili Davis. Coincidence?

Among the surprises we should talk about are Contreras and Mark Zagunis. I’m surprised that the former isn’t projected to hit more homers, but that’s mainly because the catcher has had a non-linear career trajectory. Remember, he failed to hit double-digit homers at any advanced stage of the minors and saw his season cut short last year. The computers are just not confident that he can duplicate that 21-homer production.

But c’mon, I saw it and you probably did, too. Contreras has improved greatly over the last two seasons and looks like a completely different hitter today. In particular, the Venezuelan slugger calmed down his swing by incorporating a mini toe-tap in May of last year, and results immediately followed. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t hit 20 homers if completely healthy.

Then there’s Zagunis, whose comparison was Chase Headley. Not bad for a fringe prospect, I’d say. The outfielder failed to record an MLB hit last year, but ZiPS thinks that his wOBA (.326) will be better than several other young Cubs, including Russell (.317 wOBA), Baez (.306 wOBA), Almora (.305 wOBA), Zobrist (.323 wOBA), and Heyward (.316 wOBA).

Disappointingly, ZiPS doesn’t like Schwarber or Almora, each of whom is projected for 1.2 WAR in 511 and 437 plate appearances, respectively. Schwarber’s .345 wOBA projection looks good, but the computers are crushing him on defense (-8 DEF). Almora’s just getting crushed overall, even in the one area that was supposed to be his calling card (3 DEF).

On the bright side, Happ and Heyward’s projections catch my eye the most here. I mean, sign me up for a .341 wOBA off the bat of Happ. And if Heyward can actually hit to a .316 wOBA, I’ll certainly take that with his stellar defense.

Overall, these projections are exceptional. Teams would kill to have at least 3 WAR at every position. What’s even more appealing is that many Cubs players could outperform their projections based on what we saw in 2016 or how they adjusted last season. Take, for example, the second-half improvements from Russell and Almora. The former raised his starting hand once again when he came back from injury and was crushing the ball. Almora started to hit righties with authority after adjusting to everyday MLB pitching.

Check out the complete tabled projections below and read about the ZiPS methodology and more commentary here.