PECOTA Projects Cubs at Only 82 Wins Based on Poor Defense, League-Average Offense and Pitching

PECOTA just released their full 2019 projections and, oof, there’s a lot to digest here.

Central	Updated	W	L	RS	RA	AVG	OBP	SLG	DRC+	FRAA
Milwaukee Brewers	Hitters: Jan 14 Pitchers: Feb 4	89	73	738	660	.250	.320	.415	95	34.4
St. Louis Cardinals	Hitters: Feb 6 Pitchers: Feb 4	86	76	722	670	.247	.320	.410	100	5.8
Chicago Cubs	Hitters: Dec 18 Pitchers: Feb 4	82	80	739	730	.250	.329	.413	99	-12.5
Cincinnati Reds	Hitters: Jan 21 Pitchers: Feb 4	81	81	745	745	.259	.331	.425	97	-16.4
Pittsburgh Pirates	Hitters: Feb 4 Pitchers: Feb 4	81	81	680	679	.248	.311	.396	89	-1.6

Table taken from Baseball Prospectus

Wow, PECOTA thinks the Cubs are going to finish barely above .500 and in third place behind the Brewers and Cardinals. The projection system also thinks the Cubs offense will be just about league average (99 DRC+), though still better than the Brewers. The offense certainly isn’t what’s holding the Cubs back in these forecasts.

Partly to blame for the Cubs lackluster 82 wins is a poor defensive estimate. Whereas the Brewers (34.4 FRAA) and Cardinals (5.8 FRAA) have positive defensive assessments, the Cubs are expected to be 12.5 runs below league-average defensively. Willson Contreras (-10.5 FRAA), Victor Caratini (-4.2) Javy Baez (-1.8), Kyle Schwarber (-1.8),and Ian Happ (-7.7) are all bringing down the defensive ratings.

You can also blame underwhelming pitching projections for such a low win tally. PECOTA expects regression from Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks, with Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana, and Yu Darvish coming in at roughly league average. Projections for the bullpen aren’t any better.

Brandon Morrow is expected only to throw 41 innings with a 3.92 ERA, and essentially every other reliever is expected to finish with an ERA hovering around four. Basically, PECOTA thinks the Cubs have assembled the most average roster of pitchers possible.

But, hey, at least PECOTA thinks the offense will be pretty good. For as much attention as it got for being “broken,” you have to be encouraged by these forecasts. The computers expect Contreras to be worth five percent more than your average hitter (105 DRC+) and for Bryzzo to do what Bryzzo always does. New Cub Daniel Descalso is projected to actually be better than average offensively.

In fact, much of these DRC+ projections are close to the Cubs’ 2018 totals. Baez, though, is projected to regress with a .268 batting average and 27 homers, but I’ll take those numbers every year from Javy.

If you’re worried about the Cubs’ 82-win projection, I’m not going to blame you. And if you were already worried about the pitching staff, PECOTA offers you validation. But what this and many other forecasts fail to post is the degree of confidence with which they’re operating. Maybe the computer projects wildly different numbers for Cubs players in different simulations.

In other words, a really large variation in PECOTA’s projections would mean there are scenarios in which the Cubs pitching staff might actually look much better (or worse, but let’s not think about that). Knowing how each simulation varies would absolutely change how we interpret these underwhelming projections of pitching and defense.

Perhaps more important than the specific individual stats is how PECOTA views the NL Central as a group, which is to say the teams are just as bunched up as we’ve seen in other projections. Now it’s just a matter of getting out on the field and seeing how the Cubs meet or exceed the numbers put forth by the models.