Quantifying Hope: Cubs Have 5% Playoff Odds with Deadline Looming

The Cubs have lost four of six following the break and they’ve scored just nine runs in those games while being shut out twice. That stumble should have finally instructed Jed Hoyer on how to handle the trade deadline, though every indication is that any deals will be aimed at competing next season. Of course, they were supposed to have been competing this year too. And last year.

This latest spate of ineptitude has dropped the Cubs’ playoff odds to a mere 5% with just a few days to go before the deadline. It’s probably for the best that they’ll be on the road for the next six games because that means we don’t have to be on #HugWatch during games played at Wrigley. Assuming anyone actually wants to watch these games at all.

Even if you are watching, there’s a good chance you won’t see Jameson Taillon. The righty was excellent in Tuesday’s 1-0 loss and is in line to start Monday’s opener in Cincinnati, but he’s been drawing a lot of trade interest and you have to think the Cubs will move him back even if he doesn’t end up being dealt. What they choose to do there will tell us a lot about Hoyer’s intentions.

If Taillon is announced as Monday’s starter and then actually takes the bump, it could very well mean the team is pretty much standing pat. Leaving Taillon off the list of probables would very strongly indicate the intention to move him, perhaps in an attempt to stoke the flames of a bidding war. My guess is that they’ll name him the starter for Tuesday since first pitch falls after the deadline, thereby concealing any overt motives.

It sucks that all we’ve really got to look forward to at this point is who the Cubs choose to trade away, though there’s still a chance that they’ll end up netting other players who can have near-term impact.