Quantifying Hope: Cubs Improve to Nearly 6% Playoff Odds Following Improbable Win

The Cubs still face very long odds when it comes to reaching the postseason, but they’ve overcome longer in the past. Like on Thursday night, for instance, when they went from 4% win probability with one out in the 9th to winning in walk-off fashion. There’s just something about Mike Tauchman and capping off improbable wins over the Cardinals around this time of year.

[W]heeee! pic.twitter.com/moK1yo9T01

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) August 2, 2024

The Cubs still sit dead last in the division and six games out of the Wild Card, in which they lack tiebreak advantages over any of the five teams ahead of them, so it’s not quite as easy as winning another game or two. But hey, they’ve got a shot as long as Tauchman’s wife has to keep going to the doctor.

“My wife had an OB/GYN appointment this morning,” Tauchman explained to reporters after the game. “And she told me the last walk-off [June 6 against the White Sox] was also we had an appointment that morning. So I’m gonna start taking her to the doctor, probably like…we’re gonna get a lot of appointments in. Shout-out women’s healthcare. She made sure that was the first message I had from her.”

There’s really not much more to say here because we’ve reached the point where the only options are miraculous turnaround or same shit, different day. The latter is far more likely, of course, especially if the Cubs fall back into the same pattern they’ve displayed much of the season. They’ve won only once this season following a walk-off win, though that came after their last such victory against the Diamondbacks on July 21. At the very least, maybe they can drag the Cardinals down into the muck.