Thoughts on How Cubs Handle Cade Horton After Rehab Setback Likely Ends Season
As first reported by the Chicago Tribune’s Meghan Montemurro, righty Cade Horton has suffered a setback in his rehab from a right lat strain and is likely done for the season. The Cubs’ No. 1 prospect was diagnosed with a moderate subscapularis strain in late May and was shut down for a few weeks before heading to the team’s complex in Mesa to begin his rehab. While it’s expected that he’ll be able to resume a throwing program, a return to competitive action in 2024 is unlikely.
“I don’t think we’ll see him during the season,” Jed Hoyer told the Tribune prior to Friday’s win over the White Sox.
This is Horton’s second season in the Cubs organization after being selected with the seventh overall pick out of Oklahoma in the 2022 draft. Though he’s been used exclusively as a starter, Horton logged only 88.1 innings over 21 starts last year and managed just 34.1 frames over nine outings this season. He was limited to 53.2 innings in just one season of college ball due to Tommy John, hence his status as something of a reach when he was drafted.
That’s also why the Cubs have treated him with kid gloves in terms of pitch and innings limits, a strategy I don’t necessarily agree with in general. While it’s entirely possible the restrictions on his usage are backed by very real scientific data, there’s a point at which a starting pitcher needs to be able to build up a stress-response mechanism to longer outings. The potential for injury increases if an athlete is asked to exceed previous limitations in a high-intent environment, so the Cubs may want to take a different tack with Horton moving forward.
Before I get to that, I’d like to put in a plug — this is not a paid sponsorship, but I’m not above accepting one — for ArmCare.com’s strength and range of motion sensor and accompanying app. We’ve been using it through my son’s travel ball organization and it’s also utilized by several colleges, MLB teams, and other development outfits like Driveline, Tread Athletics, etc. By measuring internal and external rotator strength, grip strength, and range of motion, the app can analyze an athlete’s tolerance for stress and the need for recovery. Anyone can purchase a sensor for $265 and the app is free, though you need a $40 annual subscription to access some of the better features.
My only gripe is that they say step 1 is to buy the sensor when everyone knows it’s cutting a hole in the box.
Okay, back to Horton, who I think the Cubs may want to bring along in a manner similar to what we saw with Justin Steele early in his career. White Sox starter Garrett Crochet might be a decent comp as well, though he never pitched in the minors and then underwent elbow reconstruction in 2022. Steele had an injury-riddled minor-league career working almost exclusively as a starter, then came up in early 2021 as a reliever.
After working no more than two innings in his first 11 big league appearances, Steele headed back to Triple-A to stretch out. He then returned to Chicago for August and September, making nine starts and going as deep as seven innings. The lefty hasn’t worked out of the bullpen since and has increased his innings per start in each of the last three seasons. Slim as the odds are at this point, he’s got an outside shot at exceeding last year’s career-high 173.1 innings despite missing over a month with his Opening Day hamstring injury.
Assuming Horton is back at full strength this spring, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t be unless you are someone who loves bathing in negativity, I could see the Cubs bringing him along in a similar fashion. His stuff is good enough to play at the highest level and a relief role is the quickest path to getting him there. The other factor here is that there’s a significantly non-zero injury risk for any pitcher and every outing Horton makes in the minors could just be wasting bullets.
That’s why I was actually angry with the way the Pirates held Paul Skenes back at Triple-A this season. The very obvious Rookie of the Year favorite had no business not breaking camp with the big club and, while it may end up helping the Cubs to an extent, it might cost the Bucs. More than that, it’s a slap in the face to fans who’ve stuck it out through cheap-ass Bob Nutting’s ownership tenure.
Am I saying Horton is the next Skenes? No, absolutely not. But I don’t think it’s even a moderate stretch to think he could be every bit as good as Steele and Crochet, if not better, just without being a southpaw. How the Cubs choose to deploy their best pitching prospect since Mark Prior is going to be a very big topic next spring, I just hope it’s as part of a much broader competitive strategy.