Cubs Reportedly Place Drew Smyly on Waivers as Potential Cost-Cutting Measure

In a move that isn’t entirely surprising given their recent statements about expecting to be over the competitive balance tax threshold this season, the Cubs have reportedly placed Drew Smyly on irrevocable outright waivers. He remains active and can still pitch for them until the waiver process runs its course, but he’s gone if another team needs a lefty starter at around $4.5 million. Smyly is owed just under $2 million for the remainder of this season and also has a $2.5 million buyout on his $10 million mutual option for next season.

Because that buyout is part of a non-guaranteed year, it’s factored into the AAV on a deal that currently sits at $11.5 million even though he initially signed for two years and $19 million. That should have been $9.5 million AAV, but Smyly triggered $2 million in bonuses last season for hitting innings targets that also escalated his salary this year by the same amount. Assuming Roster Resource is close to correct with an estimated CBT payroll of $237,434,898, the Cubs could get under if another team claims Smyly.

That could happen despite the relatively steep price tag, as we’re talking about a veteran lefty who has routinely worked multi-inning relief appearances and who has 179 career starts under his belt. He’s also pitching to more even splits this season than he has in the past, just don’t pay attention to the gap between his 2.84 ERA and 4.77 FIP. And maybe don’t look under the hood of that .245 BABIP allowed. Even with a red flag or two, it’s easy to see Smyly being plucked away.

My first thought here is that it’d be pretty dumb to put themselves into penalty status by less than half a million dollars only to end up at or barely over .500 and out of the playoffs. My next thought, and this is something I’d expressed when Hoyer and Crane Kenney first discussed their CBT status a couple weeks ago, is that saying they were willing to go over may have simply been a smoke screen of sorts. I still think the optics were bad, but it makes sense for team leadership to push back on the “Ricketts cheap” narrative that’s grown over the last few years.

“The CBT is not a governor,” Kenney said. “I know some people think that we’re afraid to trip the tax, [but] for the right player and the right circumstance and the right season, it’s not a governor and it wasn’t this year. And that’s a credit to our ownership, who, they wanna win like everyone else.”

While I do believe ownership was willing to exceed the first penalty for the right circumstance, which Hoyer said was getting a good deal on Cody Bellinger, I also believe there were caveats in place. For instance, going over may have tied to a postseason run. That would help to explain why Hoyer held onto Héctor Neris as long as he did and why Smyly was waived with just enough time to maintain postseason eligibility for interested contenders. We could even see some other players waived here soon — Patrick Wisdom and Mike Tauchman come to mind — though none will have the same potential financial impact as Smyly.

Payroll implications aside, the Cubs also need to make room for Jordan Wicks‘ return from the IL. The bespectacled southpaw has been out since mid-June with an oblique issue and will make another rehab start for Triple-A Iowa on Friday, which would be his fifth this month.

Their hot play has pushed them up to second in the division, but the Cubs remain 5.5 games behind the Braves for the final Wild Card spot with just 30 games remaining on the calendar. Even if Craig Counsell‘s team goes 20-10 in that time to finish 86-76, the Braves would have to close out with a 14-17 mark down the stretch. That’s a tall order, especially since maintaining their .542 winning percentage would see the Braves flip those results to go 17-14 for an 88-74 record.

Can the Cubs catch fire and go 23-7 to blast past the Braves, not to mention the Mets (2.5 games ahead) and Giants (tied)? I mean, sure, anything is possible. But just like how Carter Hawkins explained that the front office has two guys whose job it is to monitor all the shifting payroll nuances throughout the season, they’re surely tracking the odds on playing into October as well. Even for those unfamiliar with the intricacies involved, it’s easy to see how losing Smyly has a much greater impact on one area of concern than the other.

This isn’t a death knell by any stretch, but it’s hard to deny that the clock is starting to tick a bit louder as the season winds down.