Quantifying Hope: Cubs Clinging to 1.1% Playoff Odds After Beating Dodgers
The Cubs took two of three from the first-place Dodgers for the second time this season and continue to cling to hope of playing more than 162 games. It’s the kind of precarious grip that would strike fear in even Alex Honnold, but they’re not quite dead yet. According to FanGraphs, the Cubs enter the weekend in Denver with 1.1% postseason odds. That’s up significantly from the 0.7% they had following their second loss to the Yankees.
Even a stretch against three sub-.500 teams might not be enough to get the Cubs over the hump, however, as the Mets and Braves still stand in the way. New York has been on fire lately, rattling off 12 wins in their last 15 games to take over the third Wild Card spot. They’re skating uphill the rest of the way with 13 more games against the Phillies, Braves, and Brewers, though Milwaukee may be mailing it in by then.
As nice as it is to see the Cubs playing competitive baseball late in the season, I’m going to be really disappointed if and when they fall short and didn’t use the final stretch to call up any prospects. That’s the real danger of being consistently decent. The Cubs are playing to win, which means there’s no room on the bench for young guys on the active roster. Even if we’re just talking about Owen Caissie or Matt Shaw coming up as a reward for their hard work, limited roster expansion makes such promotions very unlikely.
I’m not sold on the idea that the Cubs can build any momentum for next year either, especially when they’re off for four months once the season ends. Add in the reduced odds at a top draft pick — though the chances go up a little since the White Sox can’t pick higher than 10 despite their historically bad performance — and you have another example of why finishing just out of the postseason is the worst place to be.
The Cubs are currently four games over .500 after going 21-34 across May and June. Just being one game under during that time would put them at 81-65 on the season, one game ahead of the Mets. This could well end up being the second year in a row where the Cubs had to claw back after poor play earlier in the season dug too deep a hole for them.
That’s the really frustrating part for me. It’s not failing to make the postseason, though that’s certainly part of it. The bigger concern is that the roster had obvious holes that could and should have been addressed differently, and the failure to do so resulted in a team too reliant on fortune. It’s like Aaron Judge swinging that massive bat of his. What would be warning-track flies at best for a normal hitter end up in the bleachers because Judge is a monster.
The Cubs are not Aaron Judge and thus have very limited margin for error when it comes to how the whims of the season impact their overall performance. That’s why we see the wild swings between offensive explosions and shutouts, or periods when the offense flips from manic to depressed for weeks at a time. But I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know.
As slim as the chances are at this point, there’s still a sliver of hope that could grow to something more meaningful if they keep stacking wins.