AP Photo/Morry Gash

The Rundown: Another Slow Start Led to Disappointing Cubs Season, Prospects Ready to Play, Tito to Cincy, Mets Bounce Brewers

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 4, 2024

“Oh it doesn’t seem a year ago to this very day you said, ‘I’m sorry honey if I don’t change the pace, I can’t face another day.'” – Elton John, Funeral for a Friend/Love Lies Bleeding

For the second consecutive season, Jed Hoyer used the word “disappointment” several times in his end-of-season autopsy, and he’s correct. The Cubs finished 83-79 against a Pythagorean record of 88-74. They were also 13 games below .500 in May and June, which means the team played at a .580 clip — a 93-win pace — minus those two months. That’s a nice foundation to start with heading into 2025.

The front office and manager Craig Counsell will undoubtedly conduct a deeper dive than I will as to why the Cubs were so bad between April and the All-Star break. One thing I think we can agree on is that they should leave Arizona with their bullpen roles firmly established. Hoyer doesn’t like to spend a lot of money on relievers, but that group has failed to find its identity in the first half of the previous four seasons. That’s more coincidence than anything legitimately quantifiable, but it doesn’t make it any less true. Chicago’s record pre-July 1 since Hoyer took over is 149-170 (.467). That type of hole requires the Cubs to go, on average, 52-29 (.652) in the second half to reach 90 wins.

The bullpen is not solely to blame, however. The Cubs tend to fall into elongated slumps at the plate, partly because they lack hitters that pitchers fear. Hoyer blamed unfavorable winds, but Chicago won one less game at home this year than they did in 2023. Luck plays a part, too, and because of that the Cubs were one of the best-hitting teams through April. Things changed dramatically after a 17-0 loss to the Red Sox at the end of the month. Chicago averaged 5.38 runs per game until that point, then just 3.52 until July 1. If you pile on 7-8 blown saves you end up playing at a .380 clip, which is what the Cubs did from May 1 to June 30.

Those annual early season failures prevent me from fully endorsing Hoyer as Chicago’s top executive. He’s established an irrefutable pattern in the way he constructs his rosters. The piecemeal bullpen is one damning aspect, but that’s not going to change. Hoping that 3-win players outperform their projections seems riskier than paying extra for that certainty on the open market. The premium to purchase that certainty, however, is years, not dollars. Dansby Swanson and Cody Bellinger cost the Cubs nearly $54 million this year. Contrarily, Bryce Harper and Matt Chapman earned approximately $45 million combined. Hoyer calls that “intelligent spending” but the results suggest otherwise.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

A lot of people think Willy Adames was being immature, and he was, but Jesse Winker has a long history of being an ass, too. He flipped off the Angels crowd in Anaheim in 2022 so the Mariners subsequently left him off their playoff roster.

Ball Four

One thing is certain and that’s that Chicago’s heralded pipeline of prospects will start getting big league reps in 2025. The Cubs have 14 arb-eligible players, and more than half of them could be non-tendered. Free agents Kyle Hendricks and Drew Smyly probably won’t be back, and Bellinger might be sporting new threads next season, too. Trade candidates include Isaac Paredes, Nico Hoerner, Jameson Taillon, Miguel Amaya, Alexander Canario, and Keegan Thompson. Additionally, Miles Mastrobuoni, Matt Mervis, and Brennen Davis may no longer warrant spots on Chicago’s 40-man roster. The Cubs will look drastically different next season as a result.

  • Infielders Nick Madrigal and Patrick Wisdom could be replaced by Triantos and Shaw.
  • Alcántara and Caissie could supplant Bellinger and Mike Tauchman (if he’s non-tendered).
  • Horton is in line to succeed Hendricks, and Ben Brown could take Taillon’s place if he’s traded.
  • Paredes probably won’t be moved until the deadline unless Smith earns a roster spot in March. That’s doubtful, though Smith could be a midseason addition whether Paredes stays or goes.
  • Caissie has to be added to the 40-man in December to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft.
  • Thompson and Canario are out of options and Caleb Killian is entering his final option season.
  • Ian Happ and Seiya Suzuki have NTCs, while Swanson would be tough to trade given his contract. Crow-Armstrong, Michael Busch, and Porter Hodge are as close to untouchable as it gets, and Justin Steele is an extension candidate.

Hoyer will also add players from outside the organization which may change his calculus accordingly. His focus will also shift from prospect accumulation to strategic trades intended to bolster the Cubs’ Major League roster, ensuring the team can be competitive in 2025.

Central Intelligence

How About That!

Milwaukee’s postseason curse reared its ugly head again on Thursday night.

Bob Uecker, who broadcasts on a very limited schedule these days, was in the radio booth last night. His boat is right outside my home and I’m sure it will depart for Florida before the weekend is over.

The Mets will now play the Phillies in the NLDS, while the Dodgers will face the Padres. The Yankees will play the Royals and the Guardians take on the Tigers in the junior circuit.

George Brett is thrilled to rekindle the Yankees-Royals rivalry that he said was previously “pure hatred.”

Emmanuel Clase sports a nearly unhittable cutter and will be Cleveland’s X-factor in the series.

Shohei Ohtani is not expected to pitch in the NLDS.

MLB postseason television ratings are way up, even with several small market teams competing.

Retired MLB star Will Clark said it is a travesty that Pete Rose is not in the Hall of Fame.

Rose’s legend will always be tarnished, and that’s his fault.

The barnstorming Savannah Bananas will tour 18 MLB and three NFL stadiums in 2025. Owner Jesse Cole said sellouts are expected at each of those venues. You won’t be able to catch them at Wrigley Field, but they will play at Guaranteed Rate Field on the South Side. Feel free to insert a joke or two in the comments section.

Extra Innings

The Cubs breakdown videos are among the best in baseball. Amaya, Happ, and Madrigal are featured in the latest episode.

They Said It

  • “Pete [Crow-Armstrong] has grown a lot. That’s what you expect to happen. I think he’s had, really, the season that we expected and hoped he would have. It’s been a little drastic, right? But next year might be [much more] consistent and you might be bored by that.” – Counsell
  • “It’s been a big fight just to get to that level playing field for yourself where you’re embracing the process and you’re embracing everything that’s fucking really hard about [baseball]. I let people help me, eventually, and that really worked for me. I have come a long way.” – Crow-Armstrong

Friday Walk-Up Song

Milwaukee’s loss reminded me of the Sopranos’ series finale. Bang bang. Sometimes you don’t see it coming.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 4, 2024
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