Cubs Third in Way Too Early Odds to Land Corbin Burnes

Let’s get this out of the way right off the jump: I don’t believe the Cubs will spend what it takes to land Corbin Burnes and I don’t think they should invest $200+ million into a 30-year-old whose strikeout numbers have been in steep decline over the last several seasons. They have, however, been connected with the former Brewers ace and are believed to be serious about upgrading the rotation beyond just having someone ascend to take Kyle Hendricks‘ spot. The ties to Craig Counsell and the NL Central are sure to drive a lot of the discourse, but hiring Scott Boras means any pursuit of Burnes is likely to be both protracted and expensive.

Of course, Boras is going to want to keep the Cubs in the picture in order to help drive up his asking price. That would be the case in pretty much any offseason, but it’s particularly pointed when talking about a team that hasn’t won a postseason game since the 2017 NLCS. What’s more, Jed Hoyer probably needs to produce a legit competitor if he wants to keep his job in Chicago beyond the final year of his current contract.

According to the experts at BetMaryland.com, the Cubs are tied for third (+650) when it comes to the odds on Burnes’ landing spot in free agency. The Mets have emerged as the favorites (+300), with a return to Baltimore (+400) viewed as slightly less likely.

Now I want to revisit my trepidation when it comes to adding Burnes on anything other than the kind of bargain signing Hoyer covets. Burnes put up a 2.92 ERA and has made at least 32 starts in each of the last three seasons, and there’s a strong chance he’ll continue to be at least very good for a few years yet. But the strikeout thing stands out as a big red flag for me, particularly when looking at a monster deal and considering how the Cubs want to find guys who can outperform their projections.

While Burnes would certainly raise the pitching staff’s floor, I have serious questions about whether he’ll be able to meet, let alone exceed, a 4-WAR level moving forward. I fully understand that pitcher WAR is a bit finicky, I’m just using it more as an example of what Hoyer is looking for. Even if the Cubs did manage to add Burnes, they’d still need to go out and land at least one more bopper to the lineup. But would they be willing to do that in addition to handing the righty the largest contract in club history?

I mean, quite possibly, since everyone agrees there’s no way in hell they’ll do what it takes to land Juan Soto. The problem with the Cubs, as we laid out in no uncertain terms during the latest episode of The Rant podcast, is that the roster is replete with dudes whose ceilings are way too close to their floors. I defy you to name one player other than Pete Crow-Armstrong who you feel confident can exceed statistical projections enough to move the needle.

Okay, I’ll give you Seiya Suzuki if he can stay healthy for a full season. Outside of that, we can pretty much plug Nico Hoerner, Ian Happ, Dansby Swanson, and Cody Bellinger(?) in for production that falls right in line with expectations. The same is probably true for Burnes, though one could argue that his floor is so high that he doesn’t need to come close to his ceiling just to make a big impact.

Still, that isn’t enough in and of itself to vault the Cubs into the postseason, and I worry that Hoyer is more focused on manifesting internal growth than buying a measure of certainty in free agency. That’s where the trade market can and should factor, as the Cubs have too many prospects on the cusp of the bigs and not enough room for them in Chicago. Figuring out a way to get Drew Rasmussen or Shane McClanahan from the Rays would provide serious upside at what would be a relatively low cost in terms of the future.

Or at least it might seem that way until Tampa ultimately gets the better end of the deal.

I believe the Cubs need to add at least one rising-tide player this winter, a guy whose mere presence on the roster is enough to lift the team. They also need to be more intentional about bullpen construction rather than hoping things will work themselves out by June. Is that an oversimplification? Sure, but you have to admit that’s what it feels like they do year after year.

Hoyer wasn’t just leaving results to chance when he said the Cubs needed to have some guys outperform expectations in order to compete. He’s just stating the reality of the game. Other teams are going to have players do better than their projections, so the Cubs need to get at least as much of a bump from some of theirs. How they go about balancing that between free agency, trades, and internal growth will determine whether Hoyer has a job after next season.