AP Photo/Matt Slocum

The Rundown: Hoyer Has Many Paths to Acquire Pitching, Steele Seeking Healthy Season, Dodgers and Phillies Facing Elimination

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 9, 2024

“I can see, it took so long just to realize I’m much too strong not to compromise.” – Boston, Don’t Look Back

I enjoyed Evan’s article about Corbin Burnes, and I know a lot of Cub fans would love to see Jed Hoyer sign the former Brewer, but that’s probably not going to happen. Why? We know one thing to be true regarding Hoyer and free agency: Where there is smoke there is generally no fire.

Other, more obvious signs will eliminate the Cubs, including an asking price expected to greatly exceed $200 million. Burnes would be a fantastic addition to any staff, but Chicago’s strength this season was its rotation, and the inclusion of Cade Horton and possibly Ben Brown in 2025 will be positives. That said, the team doesn’t have much in the way of starting pitching prospects beyond those two. A trade for a reclamation project such as Drew Rasmussen or Shane McClanahan makes much more sense.

Hoyer could also trade from prospect depth to acquire a starter with significant club control. The Mariners, Marlins, and Astros pair up well with the Cubs if he wanted to explore something similar to last year’s acquisition of Michael Busch. The Cubs have an abundance of positional prospect redundancy and could part with any or all of Kevin Alcántara, Alexander Canario, James Triantos, or Jefferson Rojas to get a starter or two. The Phillies aren’t trading Andrew Painter and the Rockies won’t move Chase Dollander, but some exciting pitching prospects could be available. The Orioles, Dodgers, Padres, and Yankees have previously shown a willingness to trade young talent. Like Busch with the Dodgers, Alcántara is blocked in Chicago and he’s the team’s No. 6 prospect.

Speaking of the Padres, their front office might decide to reverse its current course and trade premium players for prospect packages. Dylan Cease will be a free agent in 2026, as will Michael King. Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish will make a combined $41 million in 2025 so Cease and/or King could be on the block.

Several options exist if Chicago’s front office wants to shop for a starter but Hoyer’s adherence to intelligent spending will run interference in most cases. Shane Bieber and Walker Buehler are both 30 years old and come armed with excellent pedigrees. Max Fried and Jack Flaherty are 31 and 29, respectively. Garrett Crochet will be made available in trade by the White Sox. That said, if Hoyer is looking for somebody cheap, willing to take a pay cut, and also willing to accept a one or two-year deal, Kyle Hendricks is probably the top option. He was Chicago’s best pitcher in the final month of the season and it would be nice to see him eventually retire as a Cub.

In the end, however, Roki Sasaki might be Chicago’s best fit. He’s young (23 next season) and checks all of the boxes required of a standard ace. The only problem is that most executives believe the talented righty will not be posted this year. Sasaki asked the Chiba Lotte Marines to post him last season and they declined. That strained the relationship between the two parties but didn’t give Sasaki any extra leverage. He is likely to renew his request this fall, yet it’s entirely possible — perhaps likely — that the team will decline to make him available yet again.

Cubs News & Notes

Odds & Sods

Raise your hand if you remember that the White Sox once traded Fernando Tatis Jr. to the Padres for James Shields. Tatis Jr. has been worth about 22 wins above replacement for San Diego, while Shields went 16-35 with a 5.31 ERA during his three seasons with Chicago. That deal is looking worse than Lou Brock for Ernie Broglio.

Ball Four

The 10-game distance between the Cubs and Brewers won’t seem so exaggerated if Chicago can avoid the first-half struggles that have plagued the team in the Hoyer era. Craig Counsell needs to establish his bullpen’s pecking order during spring training, and the best way to do that is to avoid entering the season with unknown entities. Hoyer said Counsell will play a big role in building next year’s roster, and his input is vital to catching Milwaukee while staving off the Pirates, Reds, and Cardinals.

Porter Hodge established himself as a closer Counsell can rely on. Nate Pearson found his groove in Chicago by limiting baserunners while Tyson Miller added one strikeout per nine innings as a Cub. Jorge López averaged a career-high 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings after the Cubs signed him in June. Lopez is a free agent but his resurgence in Chicago bodes well for a potential reunion. Julian Merryweather is arbitration-eligible and expected to earn $1.3 million in 2025, so he’s a bargain if healthy.

Counsell would love to have 2-3 new, established arms added to that mix next season. Free agency is always a crapshoot, but Jeff Hoffman, Tanner Scott, and Tommy Kahnle are high-leverage relievers that would lengthen and strengthen Chicago’s bullpen. Scott Barlow is an excellent middle relief candidate, while Caleb Ferguson and Lucas Sims are under-the-radar options who will be somewhat cheap but equipped with the peripherals to succeed.

Hoyer should take a shot at Mason Miller and he’s got the assets to do so. Would you trade Nico Hoerner and a low-level prospect to the future Las Vegas franchise for Miller? I would. Devin Williams is another trade candidate to keep an eye on.

Central Intelligence:

How About That!

The Mets and Padres will advance to the NLCS with wins today.

Manny Machado is unlikely to be suspended for throwing a ball at Dodgers manager Dave Roberts.

Salvador Perez, Yuli Gurriel, and Tommy Pham give the Royals the veteran presence needed to navigate postseason baseball.

The Blue Jays have Juan Soto in their sites and are reportedly willing to pay the outfielder more than $500 million.

The Tigers today are hosting their first playoff game in 10 years.

The Red Wings are pushing back their home opener by one hour to accommodate Tigers fans.

Major League Baseball announced Tuesday that it will produce and distribute local games for the Brewers, Twins, and Guardians for the 2025 season.

Red Sox legend Luis Tiant passed away Tuesday morning. He was 83 years old.

A second minor league umpire joined a lawsuit against Major League Baseball, alleging he was fired after he reported he was sexually assaulted by a female umpire.

Rangers’ chief physician Dr. Keith Meister says he’s proposed a radical rule change aimed at improving pitcher health: banning two-strike foul balls. batting averages will drop considerably if that’s passed.

Rounding Third

I have zero interest in this year’s playoffs, a first for me. I’m a National League guy, and I just don’t care for any of the remaining participants. Despite my resistance, postseason television ratings are soaring.

Sliding Into Home

I had surgery (again) on Monday and received a gift of a Sammy Sosa jersey yesterday. It was sent anonymously, but I assume it was from one of our readers, though probably not Vegas Jack. Thank you so much for the kindness.

I’ve now got more scars (and Cubs jerseys) than Frankenstein if you’re keeping track at home. I’ve got more friends, too.

Extra Innings

Steele brings the same type of intensity to his fantasy football league that he takes to the mound for the Cubs.

They Said It

  • “Our bullpen numbers in the second half of the season were really, really strong and among the top in baseball. But, at a critical moment when those guys struggled and were hurt early, we didn’t have enough depth in that moment, and that hurt us. So that’s something we have to address.” – Hoyer
  • “We get ourselves in trouble sometimes [by] saying, ‘This guy is going to pitch this inning, and this guy is going to pitch this inning.’ Ideally, in a perfect world where everyone is healthy, feeling well, and pitching well, that’s what we want to do. But it doesn’t always work out that way.  We have to trust what we’re seeing. We have to trust the process we’re going into.” – Tommy Hottovy
  • “[Seiya’s] gotten to really long levels of consistency during the season; it’s just keeping it for the whole season. The little injury kind of set him back for a good portion after he came back. It feels like once [he] gets going, there’s only a couple of outfielders you could put above him in terms of production. We just have to keep him in that place.” – Counsell
  • “Consecutive 83-win teams, we have to push beyond that. But in terms of positioning this organization for success next year and success in the future, I feel great about where we are as an organization.” – Hoyer

Infield Fly Rule

The mastering of Boston’s “Don’t Look Back” is flawed and it’s probably because their sound is so loud. You can hear the adjustment about seven seconds into the song and later again at the start of the second chorus. There is no other band like Boston, whether you like them or not.

Wednesday Walk-Up Song

So atypical of other AOR bands at the time.

Photo of Michael Canter Michael CanterOctober 9, 2024
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