All-World Righty Roki Sasaki to Be Posted, Courtship Should Shape Pitching Market
In a surprise development, the Chiba Lotte Marines announced early Saturday morning (US time) that they will be posting 23-year-old righty Roki Sasaki. Because he is still so young and has not accrued enough experience in NPB, Sasaki is unable to sign a big-league deal and is limited to the rules governing amateur free agents. So we’re talking about a dude who throws 100 mph with a nasty splitter and slider and who can only earn as much as teams have available in their international bonus pools.
“I am very grateful to the team for officially allowing me to post,” Sasaki said in a statement. “There were many things that did not go well during my five years with the Marines, but I was able to get to this point by concentrating only on baseball, with the support of my teammates, staff, front office, and fans. I will do my best to work my way up from my minor contract to become the best player in the world, so that I will have no regrets in my one and only baseball career and live up to the expectations of everyone who has supported me.”
This is reminiscent of when Shohei Ohtani came over early ahead of the 2018 season, foregoing a monster contract in order to test himself against the best in the world. The timing of Sasaki’s posting has not yet been determined, so we don’t yet know whether he’ll be part of the 2024 or ’25 international free agent class. Each annual signing period runs from January 15-December 15, meaning Sasaki would have to wait until January 15, 2025 in order to be part of the next class.
That would open him up to a larger bonus because most teams have already spent their ’24 money, though it’s clear Sasaki’s decision is not financially motivated. The timing may be more contingent on the administrative process, which can take weeks to complete. Either way, this creates a fascinating wrinkle in free agency as teams will be wrangling to add as much additional pool money as possible — they can add up to 60% of their allotted total — in order to make a run at a potential ace pitcher.
The other facet here is how it will impact players who received a qualifying offer. Teams that exceeded the competitive balance tax in the previous season — like the Cubs — must forfeit $1 million in pool money along with losing their second- and fifth-highest selections in the next draft. All that talk about Max Fried takes on a different tone when you consider that it would effectively mean punting on Sasaki. That’s less about Sasaki needing to get the max bonus, which would mean failing to sign any other IFAs, and more about all the penalties in addition to potentially missing out on a better pitcher.
Corbin Burnes was already a non-target for the Cubs, but his overall market will be impacted by this as well since he got a QO from the Orioles. Sean Manaea may be hurt most of all since he also got a QO and won’t be nearly as sought-after as the other two pitchers named. If Sasaki indeed falls into the 2025 class, his courtship could stall the pitching market until at least mid-January.
A lot of folks have already decided Sasaki is destined to end up with the Dodgers, citing their success and the presence of Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto. As much sense as that makes, Jeff Passan doesn’t believe it’s a foregone conclusion.
Los Angeles will be linked strongly to Sasaki, but assuming he will go to the Dodgers is premature. While the presence of Sasaki’s Samurai Japan teammates Ohtani and Yamamoto in Los Angeles is advantageous, the attention they bring — and the media horde that follows them — adds a different element than other teams.
Throughout the 2024 season, MLB presidents of baseball operations and general managers were fixtures at Sasaki’s starts. Sasaki is close with right-hander Yu Darvish, whose team, the San Diego Padres, figures to be a potential landing spot. Both New York teams have extreme interest in Sasaki, though he could opt for an organization with pedigree and experience (the Cubs), a team in an international city (the Blue Jays), one whose past success with Japanese players still resonates (Darvish started his career with the Rangers) or those whose reputation for bringing the best out in players might appeal (the Rays). Plenty of other franchises can — and will — make strong appeals to Sasaki once he is posted.
Though they are certainly dark horses in this race, the Cubs should by no means be discounted right off the bat. They’ve had great success in wooing Japanese players over the years, with two recent coups in Seiya Suzuki and Shota Imanaga, and Jed Hoyer has scouted Sasaki extensively. Money clearly isn’t the priority here, so the decision may come down to which organization can sell the young righty on being the best fit for him as both a pitcher and person.
At the risk of taking a monster toke of hopium, I have a great deal of confidence in the Cubs’ ability to position themselves strongly in that regard. Being able to beat out 29 other teams for the biggest value signing of the winter sure would be a feather in Hoyer’s cap, huh? More to come on this as we get the specifics on timing, but expect it to dominate the headlines here for a while.