Matthew Boyd Latest 2013 Draft Class Member in Cubs’ Collection, Winning 90 Might Not Be Enough
Nobody clutches a string of pearls like Jed Hoyer, who is almost deserving of a vignette in The Ballad of Buster Scruggs on resolute perseverance alone. Chicago’s president of baseball operations finally got his man when he signed starter and former top prospect Matthew Boyd to a two-year deal worth $29 million, plus incentives that could give the 34-year-old lefty an extra million. Do you remember the Boyd-Javier Báez near trade in 2019? If so, congratulate Hoyer for his dogged five-year pursuit of the talented but injury-prone pitcher.
Matthew Boyd is reportedly headed to the Cubs on a 2-year deal!#MLBNHotStove discusses the move and what the veteran southpaw will bring to the Chicago rotation and clubhouse. pic.twitter.com/fjVQzwMPBq
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) December 2, 2024
Boyd is also a member of the 2013 draft class, Hoyer’s favorite based on something a little bit stronger than circumstantial evidence. Though Boyd was a 6th-round pick by the Blue Jays that year, the following members of the first round of that class have played for the Cubs or spent time in the organization’s farm system:
- Kris Bryant
- Kohl Stewart
- Clint Frazier
- Phil Bickford, who signed earlier this fall.
- Dominic Smith
- Billy McKinney
- Ian Clarkin
Rob Zastryzny, Trevor Williams, Victor Caratini, Cody Bellinger, Luke Farrell, and Trey Mancini were also members of the Class of ’13. Does that data give us any insight as to what Hoyer may do next? Well, Aaron Judge isn’t available, but Nick Pivetta and Kyle Finnegan are. You might want to place a speculative bet on either or both.
Look, we all knew that Chicago’s front office was going to eschew the top of the pitching market to focus on value in the middle and lower tiers, but Boyd? Seriously? He hasn’t topped 100 innings since 2019, has never passed the litmus test of durability, and is the proud owner of a 4.85 ERA (4.58 FIP) over parts of 10 big league seasons. If that will get you approximately $15 million in today’s market, imagine what Max Fried is looking at. Barring other moves, only starters Jameson Taillon and Shōta Imanaga will make more than Boyd. The Cubs may have been better off keeping Kyle Hendricks and saving the $12 million AAV. Boyd’s deal looks neither efficient nor intelligent, but it does allow Hoyer to thread the needle for another year.
The assumption is that Boyd will start, which leaves one rotation spot available for Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, Ben Brown, and Cade Horton. Though Hoyer has said he can never have enough pitching, he may decide to trade one or more of Taillon, Assad, and Wicks. The Cubs still need a catcher, and a left-handed power hitter will help the team avoid the extended slumps it went through in 2024.
Brown and Horton will probably be given more time to develop, though make no mistake, each is ready to pitch in the bigs.
Ball Four
Hoyer had about $50-55 million in spendable pocket change before signing Boyd, so expect the executive to pivot to the trade market before or during this year’s Winter Meetings. It remains to be seen if that means trading Bellinger, Taillon, or Nico Hoerner to offset the money owed to Boyd. Though USA Today journalist Bob Nightengale suggested Hoyer was actively trying to shop Bellinger at the GM Meetings, Jim Bowden of The Athletic said that’s not necessarily true ($). I’m not privy to any conversations, but I’d assume there was casual interest in Bellinger by other teams — the Yankees, Phillies, or Astros perhaps — with Hoyer trying to leverage that curiosity to see if better options existed. So, sure, Nightengale is correct, but he’s probably guilty of some heavy exaggeration.
What should be more concerning to Cubs fans is Hoyer’s winter malaise during baseball’s annual Texas Hold ‘Em tournament. Dropping 25-30% of your financial reserves on one player signals to other GMs that trades are coming, and nothing devalues your assets like the stench of desperation. If it was difficult to trade Bellinger during the GM Meetings, Hoyer didn’t do himself any favors by adding significant payroll for such a marginal player. Boyd doesn’t make the Cubs any better or worse, but he isn’t cheap, which limits Chicago’s options next week in Dallas, especially if Hoyer is forced to trade players with larger contracts.
Using isolation as a strategy seems like an ass-backward way of building a roster, but that’s how Hoyer often operates. I don’t know if he thrives on autonomy or identifies as a small-market executive, but there is a heavy dose of each to his personality. Demonstrating a willingness to walk away from a negotiation only works if you have enough value to do so. Hoyer doesn’t. The Cubs are coming off back-to-back 83-win seasons with no true superstar on their roster. If teams were interested in Bellinger and if he truly wanted to move that contract, why didn’t he?
The answer is that Hoyer lacks urgency. He’s not holding out for a better deal that he knows isn’t coming, he’s waiting for the market to settle. Why? The goal in trading Bellinger is not to get the best player package but to avoid eating as much of that contract as possible. Hoyer is in the final year of his deal and has two options to remain employed beyond 2025: Get the Cubs to the playoffs at any cost, or reduce payroll while keeping the team competitive. He’d certainly like to do both, but he has a strong enough farm system to pursue the latter.
It’s a high-floor, low-ceiling strategy of half-measures that should make the Cubs competitive and keep Hoyer in Chicago for another five years. The failure to pursue a World Series, however, is a disservice to Cubs fans by ownership and the front office, whose combined negligence knows no limits. Don’t be fooled by the hollow pledge to win 90 games, either. The NL Central champion has averaged 94 wins since 2011, excluding 2020, when COVID limited the schedule to 60 games. That means 90 wins is only good enough to remain in the hunt.