AP Photo/Matt Slocum

Cubs’ Abject Lack of Power, Velo Illustrated in Two Examples

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanDecember 20, 2024

Power and velocity aren’t everything, but they’re two of baseball’s most valuable commodities and choosing not to stockpile them isn’t some cool form of hipster rebellion against the status quo. On the North Side of Chicago, however, the opinion seems to be that the pros of hitting and throwing the ball hard come with too many cons — strikeouts, injury risk, etc — to be worth dogged pursuit. One could argue the acquisition of Kyle Tucker represents a break from that strategy given his top-tier ISO and slugging numbers, but he’s also got an elite plate approach and a Gold Glove.

That’s why Jed Hoyer was willing to set aside the stark reality that Tucker may need $400 million lest he stick around for less time than a Bears offensive coordinator. Tucker has already had two seasons with 30 home runs and would have had another in 2024 were it not for a leg injury that cost him half the season. That means he’s got exactly two more 30-homer seasons than any Chicago Cub over the last five seasons. You read that correctly: Of the 118 30-homer seasons in MLB since 2020, zero have come from a player who calls Wrigley Field home.

Patrick Wisdom came the closest with 28 dingers as an extremely mature rookie in 2021 and Javier Báez racked up 31 in that same season, it’s just that nine of them came with the Mets following the trade. The Cubs have only 16 player seasons of 20 or more homers over the last five years, and what’s really wild is that the hitters responsible for nine of those — Wisdom (3), Báez (2), Willson Contreras (2), Christopher Morel (1), Cody Bellinger (1) — are gone now.

All but four other teams have at least one 30-homer season more recently than the Cubs, so this isn’t a fluke. I guess Hoyer can take solace in the fact that the Giants have been waiting two decades for even a modest slugger after watching Barry Bonds blast baseballs into the bay in record numbers. Hey, do you think this is why Tom Ricketts finally let go of his made-up grudge against Sammy Sosa?

The good news is that the streak should be broken this season by at least one player, with Tucker standing out as the most likely. A full season from Seiya Suzuki makes him a strong contender, and Michael Busch could threaten for 30 if his power develops a little further. Matt Shaw reaching that mark as a rookie might be a bit of a stretch, but dude has 60-grade pop and has the potential to be a star.

As for the other side of this coin, well, I’m not so sure we’re going to see a big bump in hard throwers. The Cubs seem to have been years ahead of the recent MLB study on pitcher injuries that put the blame squarely on chasing velocity and stuff, choosing to stock up on low-90s arms that get outs via contact. Thing is, that doesn’t seem to have warded off the injury bug to any significant degree. If you’re not getting the reward, what good is trying so hard to mitigate the risk?

This isn’t strictly a Cubs thing, as plenty of other teams lack a bevy of arms capable of touching triple digits on even a semi-regular basis. But when you see that Paul Skenes threw more pitches of 98+ than the Cubs and 16 other teams COMBINED in 2024, you have to wonder how they haven’t managed to find someone to throw hard with a decent degree of effectiveness. Oh, and remember that the NL Rookie of the Year was inexplicably held in the minors for well over a month.

That list probably looks a little different with Spencer Strider and Jacob deGrom making more than three total starts, all from the latter, this past season. The oft-injured Ranger made it back in September and threw 11 of 172 pitches of 98 mph or higher, which is 11 more such throws than Cubs pitchers combined for over their last 753 pitches during the season’s final weekend.

There’s a reason that MLB study means approximately jack shit in the grand scheme of things, and it’s because velo is what gets kids recruited to college. It’s what gets kids drafted. It’s what earns pitchers big bucks from teams other than the Cubs in free agency. Yeah, you still have to be able to get outs. But for every Kyle Hendricks who manages to succeed without touching the 90s, there are a hundred Dillon Mapleses whose electric stuff earns them several chances.

This isn’t a problem of the Cubs being cheap, a tired-ass trope that needs to be killed with fire and launched into orbit. It’s about how their aversion to risk leads to a misallocation of the budget on a roster that lacks enough upside to make good on Hoyer’s desire to see players exceed their expectations. The last few years of Cubs baseball have been like driving on a two-lane interstate and getting stuck behind a semi with a governor that keeps it going half a tick faster than the truck to its right.

They may be moving forward, but the progress is slow enough to look like stagnation to everyone getting stacked up behind the jam. I guess what I’m saying is that it’s time to step on the gas and get moving or just get the hell out of the way.

Photo of Evan Altman Evan AltmanDecember 20, 2024
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