Latest Alex Bregman-Cubs Rumor Sounds Like Scott Boras Seeking Leverage

Remember how rumors of the Cubs being interested in Corbin Burnes conveniently cropped up as soon as they’d officially cleared $25 million of Cody Bellinger‘s salary? Never mind that every single report from the beginning of the offseason was that they weren’t pursuing Burnes or that the six-year, $210 million deal the Cubs wouldn’t have done was actually lower than he was reportedly offered by other teams. Whether it was just social media rumor mongers connecting anecdotes or Burnes’s reps chumming the water, there wasn’t much credence to the notion. Now we’ve got Jon Heyman saying he “wouldn’t be shocked” if Alex Bregman ended up on the North Side of Chicago.

While the Cubs haven’t quite solidified third base and have also been heavily rumored to be shopping (or at least listening to offers for) Nico Hoerner, signing Bregman doesn’t fit their MO. As the top-ranked position player after Juan Soto, he has to be targeting at least the seven-year, $182 million Willy Adames got from the Giants. Coincidentally, that’s the exact figure MLB Trade Rumors predicted for Bregman at the start of the offseason.

That amount wouldn’t eclipse Jason Heyward for the biggest deal in franchise history and the $26 million AAV would be almost a wash with the Bellinger savings, so it tracks to an extent. Of course, that’s assuming Bregman and agent Scott Boraas aren’t aiming for a much higher figure. Something like, say, the $350 million bag Manny Machado secured in 2023. I can’t imagine any team stretching that far for Bregman, but it’s not unreasonable to believe he wants a quarter-billion or more.

Another factor in the Cubs’ inclusion in the conversation is a market that seems to be pivoting away from Bregman as teams believed to be strong suitors have added less-expensive options. I could see this being something the Cubs were really in on if things work out the way they have with other Boras clients and Bregman is forced to take a deal far below expectations with early opt-outs that would allow him to make good on a big season. Not that Wrigley would be the best home field for him to do that.

The big sticking point for me is that even as good as Bregman has been, he seems to have settled into that 4-5 WAR range moving forward. With Matt Shaw projected to be a potential 20/20 player with 2.5+ WAR capability as a rookie, you’re talking about paying someone an extra $25 million per year for two wins. And that’s just for one season, as we should assume Shaw will improve over time. Even as someone who tries to be pragmatic about not overvaluing prospects who’ve never seen a big-league pitch, I am high on Shaw and don’t see Bregman as money well spent.

Maybe I’m whistling a different tune if we’re talking about trading Hoerner to the Mariners for Luis Castillo and then having Shaw play second with Bregman at third. That’s certainly a far more dangerous lineup, and it would only add around $36 million to a payroll that currently projects at roughly $50 million below the luxury tax threshold. Ah, but there’s the rub, and I don’t just mean the unlikely nature of staking those moves.

We can safely assume the front office wants to leave around $10 million in buffer to avoid a snafu like the one that pushed them into the tax penalty this past season. That would mean having only $4 million or so to add the high-leverage reliever the Cubs are still supposed to be targeting. It also assumes Bregman is only getting that $26 million AAV.

So while there may be a kernel of logic at the center of it, I think this is more likely a matter of Boras using his frequent surrogate to send smoke signals. There are too many moving parts for this to really make sense based on what we know and/or believe about how Jed Hoyer likes to put his teams together. Could the situation change dramatically over the next few days or weeks? I suppose so, I just wouldn’t bet on it. Then again, I’d have said the same thing about Kyle Tucker when those rumors first started.