So Why Did Cubs DFA Promising Pitching Prospect Michael Arias?
The short answer to the titular question is that we don’t really know for sure, but I wanted to get into some of the nuances of this transaction. Be forewarned that this entails digging into the timing of the move and roster-rule minutia that I admittedly must rely on others to provide, so much of this is speculative in nature. What we know for sure is that the Cubs officially announced the signing of Colin Rea, which necessitated the clearance of a 40-man roster spot. Rather than removing Gavin Hollowell or the recently acquired Matt Festa from the roster, they opted for Michael Arias.
Looking only at his stats from Triple-A Iowa — 5.45 ERA with 36 walks in 36.1 innings — last season might lead you to believe it was a no-brainer, but results don’t tell the whole story. Arias just turned 23 and has only been pitching for four years after converting from shortstop in the Blue Jays organization and signing with the Cubs as a minor-league free agent in 2021. He’s got a live arm that can touch triple digits with the fastball and sits 96-97 mph. He “might have the best pure stuff in Chicago’s system” according to MLB Pipeline, which has him ranked as the Cubs’ No. 18 prospect.
That’s why the club protected Arias from the Rule 5 Draft by adding him to the roster in 2023. Control issues aside, it feels like a mistake to possibly give up on that kind of electric potential from such a young pitcher with very little mileage on his arm. Unless, of course, the Cubs have something else up their sleeve. This is where we get to the roster rules, which are so convoluted I think Arizona Phil is the only person on Earth who really understands them.
Arias cannot elect free agency if he is sent outright to the minors, but he also cannot be outrighted unless and until he signs a 2025 contract. So if he is not claimed off waivers and if he has not signed a 2025 contract by the end of the seven day DFA window, he must be either traded or released.
Also, because it takes two business days to get a player through waivers during the off-season (when Saturday and Sunday and national holidays are not business days), and because the Arias DFA window closes next Monday (on a national holiday), he must be placed on Outright Assignment Waivers no later than 2 PM (Eastern) on Wednesday 1/15 in order to clear waivers on Friday (before the three-day weekend).
A player cannot be traded while he is on waivers, so if Arias gets traded it will likely happen sometime prior to 2 PM (Eastern) on Wednesday (unless the Cubs do not intend to place him on Outright Assignment Waivers).
Clear as mud, right? It’s hard to believe Arias would clear waivers given his stuff and youth, and I can imagine he might be reluctant to sign his 2025 contract. The Cubs surely don’t want to lose him for nothing, so it seems likely they’re hoping to trade him in the next two days rather than having to release him. It took me reading through that several times for it to sink in, but it’s really just a matter of the DFA window remaining open the whole time while the waiver window is only open on business days. As such, the Cubs must move quickly if they want any sort of return.
Adding to the intrigue here is that the timing coincides with the advent of the 2025 international free agency period. Could it be that the Cubs are trying to acquire more bonus pool money to make a final push for Rōki Sasaki? Even if they don’t land the Japanese star, they might be able to use additional pool allocation to poach other young international players who will be left out in the cold when Sasaki signs. So while I don’t think the Arias DFA is an indication of how the Cubs feel about their Sasaki chances, I could easily be convinced that it does have to do with IFA money.
That would help to explain why Arias was the odd man out rather than one of the other pitchers mentioned, as both Festa and Hollowell would likely clear waivers. I don’t think many teams would be willing to part with valuable pool money for either, hence dangling a much higher-upside arm. Or it could just be that the front office doesn’t believe a guy with 211 walks in 340.1 minor-league innings can figure out his control issues, though that strikes me as being at odds with their recent addition of Tyler Zombro. Unless Zombro’s the one who believes Arias is a lost cause.
We should get some more answers one way or the other by the middle of the week since we’ll know what the Cubs are (or aren’t) doing Arias and may have Sasaki’s decision as well.