Cubs ‘Giving Serious Consideration’ to Ben Brown as 5th Starter
My immediate reaction to this is “No shit” because I’ve been shouting it from the rooftops for several weeks now. But the reality of the situation is that what should be an obvious decision to put Ben Brown in the starting rotation becomes somewhat murky when you consider the Cubs’ other decisions. Whether it’s their recent history or more systemic strategy going back several years, this isn’t a team that likes to gamble. So even when Brown seems like a far better bet to pay off in a big way, Jed Hoyer might be more content to play it safe.
The front office made the mildly curious decision to sign Colin Rea as a dependable, if wholly unsexy, rotation option and have reportedly been talking to the even less sexy Lance Lynn about a one-year deal. Whether that’s legit or just leverage to extract a bigger payday from a Yankees team that should be far more desperate for starters remains up in the air. Then there’s the idea that Brown’s two-pitch repertoire leaves him better suited to a bullpen role.
But here’s the thing: His upper-90s heater and death ball knuckle curve that he just throws the crap out of (his words) will play even in longer outings. He gets a little more ride and slightly more run on his four-seam than most, and his curve fools batters because it doesn’t do what they think. While having less depth and sweep than most benders to the point that it looks bad on a movement profile chart would seem like a negative on paper, Brown throws it much harder than most. That 86.5 mph velo with movement hitters aren’t used to seeing makes it incredibly effective.
To that end, Brown was actually far better as a starter than he was coming out of the bullpen last year, which could be a matter of his personal preference and mentality. There’s a point at which it becomes foolish to look at a profile and assume someone would be better in relief simply because that’s what most dudes who look and throw like him do. Even if he doesn’t figure out the changeup right away, Brown’s two pitches are good enough to get him by. Consider that his fastball ranked in the 70th percentile (4) and his curve in the 71st (3) for run value despite pitching only 55.1 innings.
Perhaps the strongest argument for Brown’s inclusion in the rotation is that he’s the only pitcher under consideration for the role who throws harder than 92.3 mph. That’s where Rea and Jameson Taillon sat last season, and, coincidentally enough, it’s also how hard Lynn threw. Man, find you someone who loves you as much as Hoyer loves pitchers who live at 91-92 mph. The league average last season was 93.6, and it ain’t getting lower moving forward. Brown’s 96.4 would play up by comparison and his 6.8 foot extension adds a little perceived velocity as well.
The Cubs have traditionally preferred to play it safe when it comes to pitching development, to the point that they’ve shot themselves in the foot multiple times over the years. That’s why it’s easy to be skeptical of their willingness to make what I see as the right decision. But as Jeff Passan wrote in his sprawling preseason preview, the team is “giving serious consideration” to giving Brown the fifth spot in the rotation.
There are still concerns about how many innings he’ll be able to give them after last season’s early end and the fact that he’s never gone more than 104 innings in any previous season. But that’s why they’ve got depth with Rea, Jordan Wicks, and the eventual return of Javier Assad. One could even argue that Lynn would make more sense as a swingman or sixth member of the rotation if that report has legs. I get that there’s also the thought that Brown could start out in relief to conserve his innings count and then move to a bigger role, except that kind of conservative plan could end up costing the Cubs.
Keeping some powder dry for when you really need it seems like a good idea in concept, but what happens if that opportunity never comes? Put the best iteration of the roster on the field so you can win as often as possible, because trying to game the system rarely works out. Brown should be in the rotation when the Cubs return to the States.
