The Rundown: Hoerner Should Absolutely Not Be Traded, Shaw Can Still Get PAs, Cubs Add Another Tread Pitcher

It was a pretty wild weekend in Chicago sports, with Saturday night bringing both an incredible Bears comeback and news that the Cubs had signed Alex Bregman. That latter move energized fans and may have ushered in a new era, one that sees ownership approving deferrals and other such mechanisms to help the Cubs compete with their big-market brethren. Then again, it could just be an opportunistic swing made possible by the alleviation of financial obligations after this season.

Whatever the case, the Cubs made a big trade for starting pitcher Edward Cabrera before signing Bregman. The first move momentarily quieted some of the chatter about Nico Hoerner‘s availability in a trade, though Bregman’s signing reignited those rumblings. That’s all it is for now, mind you, as the Cubs are not proactively shopping their best all-around player. Doing so would be downright stupid at this point because they can’t possibly make their team better in 2026 by parting with Hoerner.

The Cubs have no hole in such dire need of filling that losing a perennial 4+ WAR player would be worth it, so the only possible motivation for dealing Hoerner would be to clear salary space. Pending the specifics of his deferral schedule, estimates have Bregman’s contract landing at $30-31 million. Roster Resource is rolling with the midpoint for now, putting the Cubs just over $243 million in CBT payroll.

That means they’re less than a million below the first penalty level, so even a minimum MLB signing or a midseason trade will push them over. Heck, player incentives alone could eat up that buffer. It stands to reason, then, that Tom Ricketts got comfortable with going into the penalty range. Unless he only green-lit the Bregman deal with the assurance that someone would be traded to clear space, which would have been a serious monkey paw deal for Jed Hoyer, Hoerner should stay put.

If you subscribe to the notion that Ricketts was cool with paying out the highest AAV in club history with the most deferrals they’ve ever done — something the Cubs have been against since Jon Lester and Jason Heyward — you have to assume it’s because he’s willing to leverage the circumstances. It’s also a matter of maximizing the immediate future while hedging their bets for the longer term, and dealing Hoerner trashes the former concept.

By shifting Matt Shaw into a utility role, the Cubs maintain a capable backup to both second and third without needing him to perform at an elite level in 2026. If they aren’t able to work out an extension with Hoerner, which is a tricky prospect due to several areas of potential misalignment on his value, Shaw slides over to second after this season. If Hoerner is extended, Shaw could be made available in trade talks.

Hoerner keeps being named in trade rumors because he’s only under contract through 2026, but that’s also why the Cubs would be foolish to deal him. His rental status makes it impossible for Hoyer to recoup anywhere close to the impact he’d be losing, especially since any team looking to acquire Hoerner plans to contend this season. As such, they’re not going to part with a front-line starter or lockdown reliever. This is a matter of the Yankees and others hoping Hoyer sees his Gold Glove second baseman as expendable.

I don’t believe that is the case, nor does Sahadev Sharma. In his piece for The Athletic about Hoerner’s status, Sharma called trading Hoerner “silly” and “antithetical to the ultimate goal of winning.” That doesn’t mean the Cubs won’t field incoming calls, as they’re always going to listen. But unless another team offers up something incredibly foolish, Hoyer can just nod and hang up.

The Cubs didn’t trade for Cabrera and sign Bregman only to end up right back in the same place they were last season, or possibly worse. That’s what trading Hoerner would do, both in terms of statistical production and those all-important vibes. He’s not a big ceiling-raiser, but he jacks the floor up significantly. Bregman does have more top-end, but he’s a similarly consistent presence. The Cubs have gotten deeper and more dynamic, which should help them to avoid those skids we saw last year amid the strong runs.

We talked about this a lot on our most recent episode of The Rant, which was long overdue, so go watch or listen to that if you’re so inclined. What it comes down to is that the Cubs absolutely cannot view the first penalty level as a cap, not if they want to play big boy baseball. I do believe Ricketts is willing to go over, especially with so much falling off, and that the Hoerner talk is more outside noise as other teams try to take advantage of what they think Hoyer might have to do.

Trading Hoerner at this point would be one of the dumbest possible moves this front office could make.

Shaw’s Role in 2026

In a related matter, many are concerned with how Shaw fits into the picture with both Bregman and Hoerner on the team. While the circumstances aren’t identical, I’d point to Javier Báez in 2016. Javy got 383 innings at second base, 370.2 at third, 194 at short, 21 at first, and 2.1 in the outfield. His plate appearances were similarly spread out across those positions, plus he went up 18 times as a pinch-hitter.

Many, myself included, have used Ben Zobrist as a comp, but he spent the vast majority of the championship season at second with a little time at each corner outfield spot. Zobrist was also 35 years old with a proven track record; El Mago was a 23-year-old with very spotty consistency. If Craig Counsell can find a way to get Shaw something in the range of Javy’s 450 PAs in 2016, especially if they’re curated to put him in more advantageous situations, he should be fine.

We also need to realize that Counsell has the extra flexibility of the DH, something Joe Maddon could only use when playing in AL parks. Moisés Ballesteros projects as the primary DH right now, but he just turned 22 and is a left-handed hitter. Using Shaw in that role against tough southpaws could benefit both young players and the team at the same time. He can spell both Hoerner and Bregman on occasion, then there are the times Hoerner slides to short to give Dansby Swanson a break.

I wouldn’t even be surprised to see the Cubs give Shaw a little time in the outfield, even if it’s just for emergency deployment. Kris Bryant spent over 450 innings in the grass during the 2016 season, the second-most he’s played out there in his career. With Kyle Tucker and Owen Caissie gone, the Cubs currently have only four outfielders on the roster. Kevin Alcántara will be the main backup, but health history and a desire for as much flexibility as possible could see them getting creative.

If the Cubs play it the right way, this season could be a real turning point for Shaw. Well, I guess it’d actually be the second one, but still.

More News and Notes

• The Blue Jays have signed Eloy Jiménez to a minor league deal
• The Reds have agreed to a one-year, $6.5 million deal with former Cubs prospect Pierce Johnson.
• Johnson was with the Double-A Tennessee Smokies when my son and I went to a game there many years ago. My son got his autograph, then landed signatures from Daniel Vogelbach, Albert Almora Jr., Billy McKinney, and others.
• The Cubs have unveiled the general schedule for CubsCon, which includes a 2016 team reunion and a Remembering Ryno panel.
• Cody Bellinger and the Yankees remain engaged, but contract length is at the center of their impasse. Bellinger wants seven years, but the Yankees have only gone as long as five for something approaching $160 million.
• The Cubs have signed righty Tyler Ras to a minor league deal following his performance at Tread Athletics’ pro day over the weekend. Ras was originally drafted by the Cubs in the 33rd round out of Middletown HS in Jersey, but he opted to attend Alabama instead. The Rockies took him in the 14th round in 2021 and he was in their system for three seasons before going the indy ball route. After spending 2025 at A-ball with the Astros, Ras has a new team.
• During his showcase, the 6-foot-4 righty sat 95-96 mph with the fastball with a splitter and a low-90s cutter.
• Expect to see a few more Tread pitchers heading to the Cubs in the coming days as part of the strong pipeline the two organizations have due to Tyler Zombro’s presence in Chicago.
• The Phillies are meeting with Bo Bichette today, which is something we have talked about previously.
• Craig Breslow has to do some serious damage control after trading Rafael Devers to make room for Bregman, then losing Bregman to the Cubs.
• Addison Russell‘s name no longer appears on the list of CubsCon attendees.

Trailer Time

I have no hopes that The Wrecking Crew will be a good movie by any objective standards, but it looks like loads of fun. I mean, how can it not be when Dave Bautista and Jason Momoa play brothers from Hawaii who are avenging their father’s death at the hands of the Yakuza?