Shift in Luck Could Elevate Cubs’ Mediocre Offense Quickly

We’re only 10 games into the season, but the Cubs currently sit in last place at 4-6 after losing two in a row for the first time. So, early though it may be, Craig Counsell‘s squad looks like it’s trying to test the old adage about how you can lose the division in April. In other words, you feel like this could be a turning point. The Cubs’ 41 runs scored put them 17th in MLB, their .132 ISO (a measure of raw power) ranks 20th, their .297 on-base percentage is 22nd, and their .199 average is 28th.

Those who are familiar with my statistical proclivities might have cocked an eyebrow at my inclusion of that latter figure, but it’s important in this case because it’s so bad. The whole point of this team was to be balanced, with a mix of power, speed, and on-base skills. That clearly hasn’t been the case through a little more than three series, which is why the team’s 84 wRC+ is tied with the Padres for 24th.

Some blame needs to be placed on the pitching staff, particularly the bullpen that enters Tuesday’s play with a 4.50 ERA (20th), a measly 19.6% strikeout rate (24th), and an alarming eight home runs allowed (24th). At the same time, it’s not as though they’ve been out there protecting five-run leads on a daily basis. When the offense fails to score enough runs and every inning is high-leverage, you’re going to run into trouble.

Rather than turning this into a complaint, however, I’d like to turn it around and share optimism for what the underlying data tells us. The Cubs’ .240 BABIP sits at 28th in MLB, 47 points below the current league average, which says they’re hitting into a lot of terrible luck. Their 45.9% hard-hit rate is third in the league and their 90.2 mph average exit velocity is fifth.

As MLB.com’s Brian Murphy laid out, the Cubs are batting .351 and slugging .647 on hard-hit balls (95+ EV); the rest of the league is at .464 and .897, respectively. Of their 10 hard-hit balls on Monday in Tampa, three apiece were groundouts and flyouts. They did pick up a homer, two doubles, and a single, though the Rays were 7-for-12 with three homers, two doubles, and a pair of singles.

Perhaps no player is experiencing worse luck than Alex Bregman, whose .125 BABIP is fourth-lowest among 198 qualified hitters despite a 55.9% hard-hit rate that ranks 21st. His batting average and slugging are 78 to 126 points below their expected marks, and that disparity stands out even more because he’s batting in the two-hole. Rather than advocating for him to be moved down, I’m simply pointing out that his results should begin to turn in a big way.

Of course, looking at what the Cubs should be doing isn’t good enough.

“That’s what is obviously frustrating about how this works,” Counsell told reporters after Monday’s loss. “We have very good hitters, some of whom are not succeeding right now. They will in a big way. On top of that, we’re kind of light on catching some breaks.

“But you’ve got to put more runs on the board to win baseball games, too.”

With both Cade Horton and Matthew Boyd out for at least two weeks, the sense of urgency for the offense to turn expectation into reality is only getting stronger. That isn’t exactly a good thing, as it can lead to pressing both mentally and physically, so Counsell’s job is to do what he can to maintain an even keel. While I am not nearly as bullish on Joe Maddon‘s overall tenure on the North Side, an opinion that hasn’t been aided by his recent screeds about today’s game, I give him credit for the whole not letting the pressure exceed the pleasure schtick.

Maybe Counsell needs to contact a local petting zoo or find a magician to visit the clubhouse one of these days. Or he could take the team on a pirate ship booze cruise, which is not to be confused with the Coke Boat (sorry, that’s the kind of esoteric joke that only a handful of chronically online folks will get). Or, and this is probably the best tack, the manager just needs to stick to the process.

Pushing buttons and pulling levers just for the hell of it isn’t going to do any good, not at this early juncture. As disappointing as it’s been to watch, there’s enough information to tell us that continuing to hit the ball like they have will eventually start to pay off in bigger and better ways. When it does, ideally very soon, the Cubs can shrug off this mediocre brand of baseball and create a little upward mobility in the standings.