Prospect Stock Watch – What Are the Odds for Who the Cubs Next Top Prospect Will Be?
The Cubs Prospect world is going to change greatly over the next 3 to 4 months. In that time, top prospect Brennen Davis should show up in Chicago in either June or July. Once he gets to 135 ABs, he will lose his prospect status and the Cubs will have a new number one prospect. Anyone who says that they know who that new number one is going to be today is not working with a full deck. There is a lot of baseball left to be played between now and the end of July as well as an MLB draft where the Cubs pick in the seventh spot. Today, we’re going to set the odds for who has the best chance to take over the top spot when Davis graduates and loses his prospect status.
In determining these odds, the one thing that could mess everything up is in just exactly when Davis loses his status. If he does it before the draft, which is highly unlikely, then that excludes the number seven pick. If his status is lost in late July or early August, the pick is back in along with Cristian Hernandez getting 6 to 7 weeks of baseball in stateside; whether that’s in Myrtle Beach or in Mesa, that has yet to be determined.
Let’s see some odds!
3:1 – Pete Crow-Armstrong, Kevin Alcantara, and James Triantos
What makes this trio special is that they’re all going to be at Myrtle Beach to start the year. They’ll have a good 2 1/2 to 3 months of data in which to make their case for the top prospect. Right now, they all have attributes that are pointing up. Crow-Armstrong is an amazing defender with an approving hit tool. Triantos tore up the Arizona Complex League last summer. Alcântara could benefit from having the other two guys bat in front of him so that he could drive them in. And they are going to be fun to watch the spring in Myrtle Beach!
#cubs Kevin Alcántara's HR accounts for the only Cub run scored in tonight's ACL game. The cash register sound is my camera taking pix. pic.twitter.com/jB6uTSoWwn
— John Antonoff (@baseballinfocus) August 17, 2021
4:1 – The Number Seven Pick
The value of this pick can fluctuate greatly depending upon who are the Cubs pick. If it’s prep hitter that’s falling from the top of the draft because of some underslot deals, the odds go to 2:1. If it’s a college hitter, they probably drop a little and that also depends upon who it is. If it’s prep pitcher Dylan Lesko, those odds improve slightly as he’s a top of the rotation pitcher, something the Cubs really don’t have in their system. They have a lot of nice kids, but they don’t have a number one. A lot of the Cubs strateIt would not be a surprise to see Arizona, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Miami save a few bucks by signing underslot deals. Signability has become such a big thing in the draft that it’s actually going to have a huge impact on who the Cubs call at seven will be. There could be two prep hitters that the Cubs probably didn’t see sitting there at number seven on draft night. That could be that could be of immense value to the organization in the long run. If that happens, we’re looking at 1 to 1 odds if somebody like Termarr Johnson or Elijah Green falls to the Cubs. Its possible.
5 to 1 Owen Caissie
And getting to see a glimpse of Casey last September in Myrtle Beach, we saw a player who definitely knows what a strike is, the player definitely knows what pitches he can hit, and a player who is only beginning to come into a zone. The problem for Casey is that when he hits the ball in Myrtle Beach, the ballpark is not conducive to completely carrying out the wishes of Casey’s bat. Myrtle Beach is been well known as a Petrus park for years and Casey got to experience that firsthand last September. Well it’s hard to count ballpark factors against a player, it does hamper his game. He still didn’t walk, he still going to hit singles, but the home run numbers might not be there until he gets to South Bend and definitely not to Tennessee where his power game couldn’t really take off. Unfortunately, that’s not gonna happen for a year or year and a half. So in case he gets to AA, he’s going to blow up.
Owen Caissie rips an RBI-double to right center #Cubs pic.twitter.com/RiWXMFI12E
— Aldo Soto (@AldoSoto21) March 22, 2022
8 to 1: Cristian Hernandez
Depending upon which prospect list you look at, Hernandez has been ranked anywhere from 2nd to 11th. Over at MLB Pipeline, he has come up as next top prospect because he’s the only other Cubs on the top 100 prospect list there right now. Unfortunately, he’s not likely to break camp with Myrtle Beach which is going to allow the other players to get a leg up and makeup some ground/odds. If he shows up in Myrtle Beach at any time in May or June, then he moves into the 5 to 1 category. If he somehow is magically in Myrtle Beach in April, you can slide him up to 3 to 1, maybe even 2 to 1 if he has a productive first two months.
10 to 1 Reggie Preciado
You don’t find too many 6-foot-4 switch-hitting shortstops growing on trees. For Preciado, he did have an impressive first campaign last summer in Mesa. He displayed power and the ability to play third base and shortstop and some would even say that he looked more at home at third as it was more instinctual to play. But what’s gonna make Preciado a top prospect in the Cubs’ system is just how much his bat produces the next four months.
20 to 1: Caleb Kilian, Ryan Jensen, Jordan Wicks, DJ Herz, Ed Howard, Brailyn Marquez
For these guys to get a top ranking, they are going to have to just an amazing season. While they would technically be a longshot, there are others who would be bigger surprises and that would be the rest of the field.