My family has an annual poker night during the holidays, and I’m never fond of a certain relative who tends to bet lightly before the flop. It’s more frustrating than the guy who constantly checks with the high hand or the know-it-all who lords over every topic of conversation at the table. You’d like to tell him how wrong he is and school him like you’re Will S. Hunting in a Haaahvahd baaah, but you’re better off just letting him spout off, taking all his chips, and then hearing the rest of the group sigh in relief as you just got rid of the table blowhard.
Cubs fans recognize that Jed Hoyer is a master of playing coy just ahead of the river turn. He’s built a team with an ironclad up-the-middle defense that also has some offensive potential. Of course, he needs a lot of things to go right, but the president of baseball operations has been almost deliberate in assembling his 2023 roster. Chicago will win a lot more 3-2 games than 15-10 barnburners, but they’ll lose plenty of close contests, too. They have little hope for separation unless…
- Matt Mervis reaches projections of 25-30 total home runs
- Cody Bellinger returns to his Rookie of the Year and MVP form
- Seiya Suzuki finds his power stroke
- Patrick Wisdom returns to the land of the living
- Nico Hoerner continues his offensive improvement
- Dansby Swanson proves that 2022 was not an offensive outlier
I won’t get into the pitching staff in this post, but a legitimate closer will turn a lot of those one-run losses into victories.
Unless Hoyer trades for a new third baseman, Wisdom is key. I’d like to see him stop trading power for contact because he helps the team much more if he hits 40+ bombs, even if it means more strikeouts. I don’t have a lot of faith in Christopher Morel as the Plan B starter at the hot corner, though Jake Slaughter is an intriguing option.
Suzuki is also someone to keep an eye on. He needs to stay healthy and hit 25-28 home runs in 2023. I suppose you could say the same about Bellinger and Swanson, but it seems to me the sophomore season is key for most Japanese imports. Moving to the U.S. and getting to know MLB pitchers is a big adjustment, and any type of regression could label Suzuki a bust. I’m confident he’ll have a big season, he just has to remain injury-free.
Hoerner and Swanson seem like safe bets to me, if only because both middle infielders have similar trajectories. Each has improved every season over the course of his career and both are baseball rats who continually work to improve. Cubs fans are going to love the next 5-6 years of that double-play combination as long as Hoyer can extend Hoerner.
I’ve not mentioned Eric Hosmer and Ian Happ yet because I am bordering on a charge of excessive alliteration, but I think Happ has reached a point of offensive predictability, much like Anthony Rizzo did from 2015-19. We can confidently count on 45-55 XBH and 70 RBI from the switch-hitting outfielder, along with solid-to-stellar defense. Hosmer is a lottery ticket who will give Chicago slightly above-average offensive production and he won’t hurt the team defensively.
The 2023 Cubs will pay pristine defense and, as long as their pitching continues to be among the best in the NL Central, they will have a chance to beat anybody. If their offense surprises, this summer is going to feel an awful lot like 2015. I don’t think the team is there yet, however, and I don’t see a similar 26-win improvement over the previous season. The Cubs just aren’t a 100-win team as currently constructed. But hey, the Phillies made the playoffs last season with 87 wins. If everything goes right and they make a decent addition or two at the trade deadline, these Cubs could be right there.
Cubs News & Notes
- First baseman Alfonso Rivas has been released by the Cubs following his DFA. So we won’t see him at CubsCon next week, right? Because that would be awkward.
- P.J. Higgins is still in DFA limbo, however. And speaking of awkwardness, the Cubs signed Dom Nuñez to take Higgins’ place.
- The signing of Eric Hosmer is official. Celebrate accordingly, just remember the Cubs are not paying him anything but the league minimum. I know that’s a difficult concept for some of you. As Brad Pitt portraying Billy Beane would say, “The Padres are paying you $38 million and change to play against them.”
- Chicago’s low-risk, high-reward dash through free agency indicates the team has its eye on winning the NL Central. The discerning fan understands that Hoyer is aligning his roster for a run in 2024.
- Happ’s extension benchmark probably looks a lot like the five-year $100 million deal that Nick Castellanos signed with the Phillies as a free agent last winter.
- Here’s a pretty cool slideshow of Happ’s career since signing with the Cubs out of the University of Cincinnati.
- Bleacher Report dropped their first top prospect list of 2023, and Kevin Alcántara (No. 99), Brennen Davis (52), and Pete Crow-Armstrong (43) made the top 100. Mervis earned an honorable mention.
- MLB Pipeline predicts RHP Cade Horton will be Chicago’s breakout minor league player of 2023. Owen Caissie is my selection, and I believe he will be a top 75 MLB prospect at this time next year.
Odds & Sods
Today In 1942: Baseball star Bob Feller reports to Norfolk to begin his enlistment in the Navy. Feller was the first major league player to enlist in the military after the bombing of Pearl Harbor. #WWII #MLB #History pic.twitter.com/rHXrmvBr4W
— Baseball by BSmile (@BSmile) January 6, 2023
Rafael Devers has agreed to a monstrous 11-year, $332 million contract extension with the Red Sox.
FanGraphs’ Steamer projects that Mariners outfielder Julio Rodríguez will hit 32 home runs with 25 stolen bases, making him one of four players projected for a 25-25 season along with Ronald Acuña Jr., Bobby Witt Jr., and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
The Red Sox are working on a potential trade with the Marlins, with infielder Miguel Rojas and pitcher Pablo López specifically mentioned as players of interest. Miami is reportedly targeting top prospect Triston Casas.
— Vintage Jerseys & Hats (@PolyesterUnis) January 5, 2023
Friday Morning Six-Pack
- Today marks the 50th anniversary of the debut of Schoolhouse Rock!
- The Bears play their final game of the season on Sunday, and depending on how things shake out, they could end up drafting anywhere from first to fourth. I’d bet on Chicago getting the No. 1 pick, especially since Justin Fields will not play.
- Devin Hester is among the 15 finalists for induction into the NFL Hall of Fame.
- I love that there is a weather event called the Pineapple Express, mostly because I love the movie by the same name. Folks who live on the upper West coast probably aren’t as amused.
- Some partake in an annual event called “Dry January” which means that non-alcoholic beer is having its moment.
- It looks like 2023 will be the year of the Hollywood blockbuster spinoff...again. I’d be ashamed to look in the mirror if I wrote scripts.
They Said It
- “I’ve been around long enough to see and to realize you don’t make certain moves unless the eye is to start trending towards winning. I don’t think you go out and sign Dansby Swanson or go after a guy like Cody Bellinger if you’re trying to continue a rebuild or you’re getting ready to tear it down to the studs. I just don’t think that’s the case.” – Tucker Barnhart
Friday Walk-Up Song
Darn! That’s the end…