Quantifying Hope Quickie: Cubs Loss Plus Mets, Braves Wins Drop Chances to 0.2%
The Cubs entered their series with the Rockies clinging in vain to 1.1% postseason odds, but those have all but evaporated thanks to a confluence of events Friday night. Not only did the Cubs fall to the Rockies, but the Mets and Braves both won to put the Cubs six games out of the Wild Card with 15 left to play. The Braves are a game behind the Mets, for what it’s worth.
While every loss is severely detrimental to the cause at this point, dropping a game to one of the two worst teams in the league takes an added psychological toll. And when the result came down to a bullpen that has been so good over the last few months giving up a bunch of runs late, things get that much more dire. Direr? Either way, the Cubs are about to die.
As I noted in yesterday’s regular installment, what really sucks is that these last two weeks are just some sort of baseball purgatory in which the Cubs (probably) can’t make a run and don’t have time to bring up prospects. I mean, yeah, I suppose they could get a couple guys up for a cup of coffee just for the hell of it. But are they really going to DFA Miles Mastrobuoni and/or other players to make room for that?
FanGraphs says the Cubs have a 0.2% chance to make the postseason, but even going 12-3 over their remaining games means the Mets would have to go 5-10 over theirs. Oh, and the Braves would have to go 6-9…nice. What if the Cubs just go 10-5? I guess the Mets could hit a 3-12 skid against several good teams and the Nationals. Craig Counsell is going to have to hit the flashlight to get the last remaining juice from the batteries if he wants even a guttering halo of light the rest of the way.
If there’s a bright side to this, it’s that you don’t have to worry about investing as much of your time and attention down the final stretch. Well, that’s a good thing for some of you. The baseball season is a real grind and there are times when fatigue sets in to the point that it’s good to have a break. And though I don’t need that break quite as bad as former Twins minor league catcher Derek Bender, who was telling opposing hitters what pitches were coming, I’m not terribly upset about the Cubs’ run effectively ending early.
Moving forward, however, they’ve now run out of excuses for not fielding a team favored to win the division and compete for postseason wins.