Cubs 2018 ZiPS Projections Pt 2: Lofty Projections for Starters, Bullpen Looks Elite

ZiPS loves the Cubs’ core of position players, but the computers are confident in the 2016 World Series champ’s pitchers, too.

There’s been concern about the starting rotation going into next year, or at least that’s what my Twitter timeline tells me. Yet the projections are led by Jose Quintana (4.5 WAR), Jon Lester (3.5), and Kyle Hendricks (3.2). A very good top of the rotation, indeed, and supported by an even better bullpen, consisting of six pitchers with ERA- projections of 82 or lower.

Let’s start with the starters, namely Quintana, who ZiPS believes will keep doing his thing. The Colombian lefty is projected for a 3.13 ERA, which would be the best of his career, and 3.19 FIP that’s significantly lower than his career average. Hey, Q’s career sort of looks like Andy Pettitte’s. ZiPS agrees.

Theo Epstein has actually compared Pettitte to another Cubs lefty, and I don’t mean Mike Montgomery. Lester is expected to post a 3.54 ERA and 3.69 FIP (nice), both of which are very similar to what Hendricks (3.48 ERA, 3.78 FIP) is in line for. Oh, and those player comps are real doozies for these two. Lester is linked to Hall of Famer (I repeat, Hall of Famer) Tom Glavine, while Hendricks receives a comp of Tim Hudson. Wow.

Let’s dial down the sensational tone for a second and talk about two disappointing projections: Tyler Chatwood and Montgomery. Chatwood’s Colorado numbers are undoubtedly influencing his ZiPS projections, as he’s looking at a 4.24 ERA/4.34 FIP in 143 innings. Then again that FIP is actually right around league average in today’s launchpad environment, and the Cubs did pay him to essentially pitch just like his ZiPS projections. Still, I and many wouldn’t be surprised to see Chatwood surpass those predictions.

Montgomery isn’t projected favorably either, coming in at a 4.11 ERA/4.43 FIP in 116 innings, which would be a huge downgrade from the 3.38 ERA he put up last year in 130.2 innings. ZiPS thinks Monty’s 0.61 HR/9 last year was unsustainable and believes it will shoot back up to around 1.0 per game next year.

Imagine for a second that Jake Arrieta does come back to the Cubs. ZiPS actually doesn’t think too highly of the Cubs legend, despite Scott Boras’s asking price suggesting he’s an ace. Arrieta’s predicted FIP is relatively low at 3.94 and his 3.67 ERA is slightly better. It’s not as if these predictions are unfathomable, since the former(?) Cub had a 3.53 ERA and 4.16 FIP last season. But if the Cubs are paying $25 million a year for the next four seasons for these numbers, maybe the risk is just too much.

Arrieta or no, the Cubs might not yet be done adding to their starting staff, so things could change here in the near future. They’re probably done constructing their bullpen, though, and wow, these relief projections are lovely…

Six Cubs relievers have ERA- projections under 82: Justin Wilson (70), Brandon Morrow (72), Carl Edwards Jr (72), Pedro Strop (76), Steve Cishek (76), and Brian Duensing (81). Even Dillon Maples’ ERA- is projected to be an encouraging 94.

But can we talk about Wilson for a moment? After all, ZiPS thinks he’s the best Cubs reliever among a sturdy crew. My boss and the man who deals with editing my terrific posts, Evan Altman, discussed Wilson’s potential rebound in great detail recently. It is a must read and will get me bonus points if you click on the link. The Cubs Insider EIC went as far to say that if Wilson can be the man ZiPS projects him to be, this Cubs bullpen has a good chance at being the best in baseball. He’s not wrong!

What I also find intriguing about the bullpen projections is that Edwards is pegged for an excruciatingly high 5.7 BB/9, even though the computer still thinks he can have a 3.12 ERA in spite of so many walks. That’s probably because ZiPS also forecasts that he will strike out almost 14 batters per nine innings — a K/9 that would be among the best in all of baseball.

Morrow, the presumed closer, isn’t being penalized for his gap years and down seasons, coming in hot with a solid 3.14 ERA in 51.2 innings. Very similar numbers to Edwards, actually. Then there’s Strop and Cishek setting the table for the aforementioned relievers with 3.33 ERA marks of their own.

What this is all suggesting is that the Cubs could have the best bullpen not just in the division or the league, but in MLB overall. Cool. And the top three Cubs starters are being compared to some of the better pitchers in the last generation. Super cool.

You can check out the full tables below and read more commentary on the complete projections on FanGraph’s page here.

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jose Quintana	L	29	30	30	186.0	188	51	16	166	71	66
Jon Lester	L	34	29	29	170.3	169	48	21	156	72	67
Kyle Hendricks	R	28	27	27	155.0	136	39	18	146	64	60
Jake Arrieta	R	32	29	29	161.7	158	56	20	143	71	66
Tyler Chatwood	R	28	30	25	143.0	115	66	15	133	72	67
John Lackey	R	39	26	25	146.0	129	44	26	144	77	72
Mike Montgomery	L	28	38	15	116.0	96	51	13	107	57	53
Alec Mills	R	26	20	18	88.7	70	25	10	93	43	40
Carl Edwards Jr.	R	26	67	0	60.0	92	38	5	38	22	21
Justin Wilson	L	30	64	0	56.0	78	30	4	40	20	19
Brandon Morrow	R	33	53	0	51.7	54	17	4	46	19	18
Pedro Strop	R	33	63	0	54.0	64	23	5	42	21	20
Drew Smyly	L	29	21	20	113.0	106	37	22	113	63	59
Steve Cishek	R	32	57	0	51.3	56	21	5	43	20	19
Rob Zastryzny	L	26	25	15	94.0	78	38	12	98	49	46
Williams Perez	R	27	23	22	113.7	85	50	13	118	63	59
Brian Duensing	L	35	57	0	53.3	48	17	5	50	22	21
Dillon Maples	R	26	59	0	65.7	94	56	5	50	31	29
Anthony Bass	R	30	27	12	82.7	71	36	11	84	46	43
Koji Uehara	R	43	42	0	37.0	45	10	6	33	16	15
Daury Torrez	R	25	45	1	70.7	49	19	9	77	35	33
James Pugliese	R	25	41	7	77.0	54	40	7	81	42	39
Trevor Clifton	R	23	22	22	102.0	82	51	14	109	60	56
Dario Alvarez	L	29	43	0	47.0	63	25	7	40	22	21
Cory Mazzoni	R	28	30	0	40.3	44	10	5	39	18	17
Zach Hedges	R	25	24	24	135.0	65	43	19	162	81	76
Dan Camarena	L	25	23	22	113.0	73	37	20	128	68	64
Jen-Ho Tseng	R	23	25	24	132.3	97	43	24	150	80	75
Justin Grimm	R	29	62	0	61.7	72	31	9	54	31	29
Kyle Ryan	L	26	62	0	60.3	42	34	4	59	31	29
Matt Carasiti	R	26	52	0	55.3	63	29	8	51	29	27
Craig Brooks	R	25	45	0	56.3	68	48	5	47	30	28
Eddie Butler	R	27	23	21	111.3	65	47	16	126	68	64
Brad Markey	R	26	34	9	86.7	59	27	15	99	51	48
Adbert Alzolay	R	23	22	22	103.3	77	43	18	115	64	60
Manny Parra	L	35	35	0	26.7	22	12	3	27	14	13
Duane Underwood	R	23	24	23	118.0	78	58	17	132	74	69
Randy Rosario	L	24	33	5	71.7	48	37	9	78	43	40
Oscar de la Cruz	R	23	14	13	55.0	43	20	11	62	34	32
Justin Hancock	R	27	47	0	53.7	44	31	6	54	30	28
Tom Hatch	R	23	26	26	117.7	97	65	17	128	75	70
Scott Carroll	R	33	21	14	84.0	45	37	14	98	56	52
David Rollins	L	28	34	3	46.3	36	22	9	52	31	29
Alberto Baldonado	L	25	50	0	56.3	58	36	10	56	35	33
Ross Detwiler	L	32	30	11	76.7	55	39	13	87	51	48
Matt Swarmer	R	24	23	11	90.0	73	33	21	104	61	57
David Garner	R	25	38	0	46.3	47	34	9	48	33	31
Jake Stinnett	R	26	18	15	79.0	65	45	17	89	57	53
Luke Farrell	R	27	28	19	109.0	75	56	22	127	79	74

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jose Quintana	186.0	775	24.3%	6.6%	.292	3.19	3.13	73	72
Jon Lester	170.3	715	23.6%	6.7%	.286	3.54	3.69	81	85
Kyle Hendricks	155.0	650	20.9%	6.0%	.284	3.48	3.74	80	86
Jake Arrieta	161.7	684	23.1%	8.2%	.278	3.67	3.94	84	91
Tyler Chatwood	142.3	626	18.4%	10.5%	.277	4.24	4.34	97	100
John Lackey	146.0	626	20.6%	7.0%	.282	4.44	4.75	102	109
Mike Montgomery	116.0	506	19.0%	10.1%	.278	4.11	4.43	94	102
Alec Mills	88.7	384	18.2%	6.5%	.303	4.06	4.03	93	92
Carl Edwards Jr.	60.0	256	35.9%	14.8%	.277	3.15	3.12	72	72
Justin Wilson	56.0	238	32.8%	12.6%	.290	3.05	2.91	70	67
Brandon Morrow	51.7	218	24.8%	7.8%	.298	3.14	3.12	72	72
Pedro Strop	54.0	227	28.2%	10.1%	.282	3.33	3.38	76	78
Drew Smyly	113.0	489	21.7%	7.6%	.282	4.70	4.79	108	110
Steve Cishek	51.3	218	25.7%	9.6%	.284	3.33	3.47	76	80
Rob Zastryzny	94.0	418	18.7%	9.1%	.302	4.40	4.53	101	104
Williams Perez	113.7	509	16.7%	9.8%	.296	4.67	4.57	107	105
Brian Duensing	53.3	227	21.1%	7.5%	.290	3.54	3.53	81	81
Dillon Maples	65.7	303	31.0%	18.5%	.313	3.97	4.03	91	92
Anthony Bass	82.7	368	19.3%	9.8%	.297	4.68	4.55	107	104
Koji Uehara	37.0	154	29.2%	6.5%	.293	3.65	3.56	84	82
Daury Torrez	70.7	308	15.9%	6.2%	.300	4.20	4.32	96	99
James Pugliese	77.0	352	15.3%	11.4%	.301	4.56	4.65	105	107
Trevor Clifton	102.0	466	17.6%	10.9%	.304	4.94	5.01	113	115
Dario Alvarez	47.0	206	30.6%	12.1%	.306	4.02	4.14	92	95
Cory Mazzoni	40.3	170	25.9%	5.9%	.312	3.79	3.48	87	80
Zach Hedges	135.0	610	10.7%	7.0%	.301	5.07	5.14	116	118
Dan Camarena	113.0	504	14.5%	7.3%	.293	5.10	5.31	117	122
Jen-Ho Tseng	132.3	590	16.4%	7.3%	.301	5.10	5.16	117	118
Justin Grimm	61.7	270	26.7%	11.5%	.288	4.23	4.28	97	98
Kyle Ryan	60.3	274	15.3%	12.4%	.288	4.33	4.27	99	98
Matt Carasiti	55.3	246	25.6%	11.8%	.301	4.39	4.44	101	102
Craig Brooks	56.3	264	25.8%	18.2%	.302	4.47	4.56	103	105
Eddie Butler	111.3	507	12.8%	9.3%	.294	5.17	5.21	119	120
Brad Markey	86.7	386	15.3%	7.0%	.300	4.98	5.12	114	118
Adbert Alzolay	103.3	468	16.5%	9.2%	.299	5.23	5.35	120	123
Manny Parra	26.7	119	18.5%	10.1%	.296	4.39	4.32	101	99
Duane Underwood	118.0	544	14.3%	10.7%	.299	5.26	5.34	121	123
Randy Rosario	71.7	330	14.5%	11.2%	.297	5.02	5.17	115	119
Oscar de la Cruz	55.0	247	17.4%	8.1%	.300	5.24	5.45	120	125
Justin Hancock	53.7	246	17.9%	12.6%	.296	4.70	4.76	108	109
Tom Hatch	117.7	546	17.8%	11.9%	.308	5.35	5.20	123	119
Scott Carroll	84.0	387	11.6%	9.6%	.295	5.57	5.75	128	132
David Rollins	46.3	213	16.9%	10.3%	.299	5.63	5.55	129	128
Alberto Baldonado	56.3	261	22.2%	13.8%	.299	5.27	5.43	121	125
Ross Detwiler	76.7	356	15.4%	11.0%	.303	5.63	5.61	129	129
Matt Swarmer	90.0	407	17.9%	8.1%	.303	5.70	5.87	131	135
David Garner	46.3	221	21.3%	15.4%	.305	6.02	6.05	138	139
Jake Stinnett	79.0	371	17.5%	12.1%	.301	6.04	6.21	139	143
Luke Farrell	109.0	510	14.7%	11.0%	.299	6.11	6.11	140	140

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jose Quintana	186.0	9.10	2.47	0.77	136	4.9	Andy Pettitte
Jon Lester	170.3	8.93	2.54	1.11	123	3.5	Tom Glavine
Kyle Hendricks	155.0	7.90	2.26	1.05	123	3.2	Tim Hudson
Jake Arrieta	161.7	8.80	3.12	1.11	117	3.0	Dave Stieb
Tyler Chatwood	142.3	7.27	4.17	0.95	101	1.7	Paul Foytack
John Lackey	146.0	7.95	2.71	1.60	98	1.6	Bob Forsch
Mike Montgomery	116.0	7.45	3.96	1.01	106	1.5	Lou Brissie
Alec Mills	88.7	7.11	2.54	1.02	107	1.3	John Hope
Carl Edwards Jr.	60.0	13.80	5.70	0.75	136	1.2	Armando Benitez
Justin Wilson	56.0	12.54	4.82	0.64	140	1.2	Will Ohman
Brandon Morrow	51.7	9.41	2.96	0.70	138	1.1	Chad Bradford
Pedro Strop	54.0	10.67	3.83	0.83	129	1.0	Turk Wendell
Drew Smyly	113.0	8.44	2.95	1.75	92	0.9	Curt Young
Steve Cishek	51.3	9.82	3.68	0.88	129	0.9	Turk Wendell
Rob Zastryzny	94.0	7.47	3.64	1.15	97	0.9	Scott Sauerbeck
Williams Perez	113.7	6.73	3.96	1.03	92	0.8	Steve Arlin
Brian Duensing	53.3	8.10	2.87	0.84	123	0.7	Tony Castillo
Dillon Maples	65.7	12.88	7.68	0.69	109	0.6	Duane Ward
Anthony Bass	82.7	7.73	3.92	1.20	93	0.6	Mike Heathcott
Koji Uehara	37.0	10.95	2.43	1.46	119	0.5	Russ Springer
Daury Torrez	70.7	6.24	2.42	1.15	102	0.5	Donnie Moore
James Pugliese	77.0	6.31	4.68	0.82	94	0.5	Walt Masterson
Trevor Clifton	102.0	7.24	4.50	1.24	87	0.5	Ed Wojna
Dario Alvarez	47.0	12.06	4.79	1.34	107	0.4	Tim Fortugno
Cory Mazzoni	40.3	9.82	2.23	1.12	113	0.4	Brandon Lyon
Zach Hedges	135.0	4.33	2.87	1.27	85	0.4	Michael Macdonald
Dan Camarena	113.0	5.81	2.95	1.59	85	0.4	Eric Knott
Jen-Ho Tseng	132.3	6.60	2.92	1.63	84	0.4	Sergio Mitre
Justin Grimm	61.7	10.51	4.52	1.31	101	0.4	Todd Wellemeyer
Kyle Ryan	60.3	6.27	5.07	0.60	100	0.3	Mike Cosgrove
Matt Carasiti	55.3	10.25	4.72	1.30	98	0.2	Roy Corcoran
Craig Brooks	56.3	10.86	7.67	0.80	97	0.2	Clay Bryant
Eddie Butler	111.3	5.25	3.80	1.29	83	0.2	Kevin Hodges
Brad Markey	86.7	6.13	2.80	1.56	86	0.2	Brad Rigby
Adbert Alzolay	103.3	6.71	3.75	1.57	82	0.1	Jake Joseph
Manny Parra	26.7	7.43	4.05	1.01	98	0.1	Darold Knowles
Duane Underwood	118.0	5.95	4.42	1.30	81	0.1	Jake Dittler
Randy Rosario	71.7	6.03	4.65	1.13	86	0.1	Scott Rice
Oscar de la Cruz	55.0	7.04	3.27	1.80	82	0.1	Daniel Haigwood
Justin Hancock	53.7	7.38	5.20	1.01	91	0.0	Horacio Pina
Tom Hatch	117.7	7.42	4.97	1.30	80	0.0	Jake Joseph
Scott Carroll	84.0	4.82	3.96	1.50	78	-0.2	Sid Hudson
David Rollins	46.3	6.99	4.27	1.75	77	-0.3	Danny Young
Alberto Baldonado	56.3	9.27	5.75	1.60	81	-0.3	Carlos Cabassa
Ross Detwiler	76.7	6.46	4.58	1.53	76	-0.4	Hal Elliott
Matt Swarmer	90.0	7.30	3.30	2.10	75	-0.4	Ken Ryan
David Garner	46.3	9.13	6.60	1.75	71	-0.6	Adalberto Mendez
Jake Stinnett	79.0	7.41	5.13	1.94	71	-0.7	Mark Woodyard
Luke Farrell	109.0	6.19	4.62	1.82	71	-1.0	Mike Windham